China confidently faces future amid 'collapse' hype

Editor's note: Djoomart Otorbaev, a special commentator on current affairs for CGTN, is a former prime minister of the Kyrgyz Republic, a professor of the Belt and Road School of Beijing Normal University, a member of Nizami Ganjavi International Center, and the author of the book "Central Asia's Economic Rebirth in the Shadow of the New Great Game" (Routledge, 2023). The article reflects the author's views and not necessarily those of CGTN.

Our neighbor, the People's Republic of China (PRC), is preparing to celebrate the 75th anniversary of the country's founding. This milestone provides an excellent opportunity to reflect on China's development, draw preliminary conclusions and discuss the future.

Over the years, the country has steadily strived to improve people's living standards by investing in social protection, quality education and healthcare, and ensuring sustainable economic growth. The numbers best demonstrate the progress made.

In 1949, when the PRC was established, the nation's GDP was a mere $12.3 billion. Fast forward to 2023, it had soared to about $17.75 trillion, projected to increase by around 5 percent in 2024.

This rapid growth is not just a number but a testament to China's remarkable transformation from one of the world's poorest nations, with a per capita GDP of $23 in 1949, to an upper-middle-income country with a per capita GDP expected to surpass $13,000 this year.

China has emerged and firmly established itself as the world's most important growth engine and a global economic powerhouse. Its influence is felt globally, contributing around 16.9 percent of the global GDP. It has not just remained, but consistently been the primary driver of global economic growth, having contributed over 30 percent for 11 consecutive years.

China's industrial prowess surpasses the combined production of the next nine largest manufacturers. The country has made remarkable progress, lifting over 800 million people out of poverty a decade earlier than planned by the UN Sustainable Development Goals.

China has demonstrated remarkable resilience in the face of internal crises such as epidemics, famine, pandemics, real estate market crises, and global challenges, including trade, technological, and financial pressure initiated by U.S.-led Western countries.

Despite these adversities, China has emerged more potent and determined. Over the years, many Western scholars have claimed that China is on the brink of "inevitable collapse" with ever-new theories. But that "collapse" has not yet arrived, and the country is looking to its future with ever-greater confidence.

China has emerged as a global strategic partner, playing an enormous role as the world's largest trading nation in goods for seven consecutive years in 2023. It is the top trading partner with over 120 countries and regions worldwide.

On infrastructure, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) seeks to connect Asia with the world via land and maritime networks. The BRI has attracted at least three-quarters of the world's countries and 32 international organizations. According to official records, the mega-project has "created more than 3,000 projects and 420,000 jobs for the participating countries," lifting an estimated 40 million people out of poverty.

Anniversaries provide an excellent opportunity to reflect on past achievements and challenges and, most importantly, outline plans. In what directions should the world's second-largest economy develop, and where will it achieve its most remarkable successes? What guidelines and goals should be set to accelerate progress in society and the state?

Given its vastness, listing all the development priorities is impossible, so we will underline only the most critical areas.

One of the most essential tasks is strengthening leadership in new technologies. According to the National Science Foundation, China has surpassed the U.S. in scientific patents and publications. The Australian Strategic Policy Institute further reports that China leads the U.S. in 37 out of 44 technological fields, covering a wide range of crucial technological domains ranging from artificial intelligence (AI) to key quantum technology areas. China also holds six times more generative AI inventions than the U.S., leading the world.

The critical question remains whether China will be able to capture leadership in basic research and development. What groundbreaking discoveries in the natural sciences – such as physics, chemistry, biology and medicine – will its scientists make? How many outstanding articles will be published in reputable peer-reviewed journals? How many Nobel laureates will the country produce? How will the newest scientific discoveries be integrated into cutting-edge technologies?

The U.S. is currently the world's undisputed leader in basic research, as evidenced by its exceptional record of scientific achievements.

Since 2000, American scientists have received 112 Nobel Prizes in chemistry, medicine and physics, and among these laureates, 45 scientists, or 40 percent, came to America as immigrants. Between 1901 and 2023, immigrants have secured 36 percent, or 115 out of 319, of the Nobel Prizes awarded to Americans in these fields.

Finding and nurturing local and international talents engaged in scientific work is crucial for creating discoveries and inventions. Talent has always been a unique phenomenon throughout history and in all cultures.

The American scientific community has a unique ability to attract talented individuals from around the world, not just because of generous compensation and research funds but also because of the high-quality scientific environment, open international debate and discussion, and academic freedom.

The remarkable accomplishments of scientists at top American universities validate this. Silicon Valley's prominent position in California stems from attracting bright minds worldwide. Why can't China replicate such successes by offering opportunities for international talent to collaborate with local talent, facilitating distinctive discoveries and innovations? It should be a priority for Beijing in the near future.

The analysis of China's accomplishments over the past decades demonstrates that its development has benefited its people and has resulted in global progress, prosperity and peace. Acknowledging these achievements does not imply reaching the final destination. Instead, they will serve as a source of pride and a platform for an even more active push towards progress for the country and society.

(If you want to contribute and have specific expertise, please contact us at opinions@cgtn.com. Follow @thouse_opinions on X, formerly Twitter, to discover the latest commentaries in the CGTN Opinion Section.)