Study shows U.S. heat deaths projected to soar by mid-century

A new study has projected a dramatic increase in deaths related to extreme temperatures across the United States by the mid-21st century, with specific populations bearing a disproportionate impact burden.

The study, published on Friday in the Journal of the American Medical Association website, found that about 8,250 deaths per year are currently associated with extreme heat and cold.

Researchers estimated that extreme temperature-related deaths in the contiguous United States could more than double or even triple by 2036 to 2065, depending on future greenhouse gas emissions.

Under a scenario with lower emissions increases, that number could rise to over 19,300 deaths annually by mid-century. A higher emissions scenario could reach nearly 26,600 deaths per year.

"Despite a decrease in extreme cold-related deaths, overall extreme temperature-related deaths were projected to more than double or triple depending on the emissions increase scenario analyzed," the study's authors wrote.

According to the projections, certain groups face more significant risks. Compared to non-Hispanic white adults, Hispanic adults could see a 537.5 percent increase in extreme temperature deaths, while African American adults face a 278.2 percent increase.

Older adults and those living in metropolitan areas are also projected to experience larger increases in temperature-related mortality. The researchers noted this likely relates to factors like the urban heat island effect.

They pointed to factors such as lower access to air conditioning, higher urban heat island effects, reduced green space exposure, and greater exposure to traffic-related air pollution in neighborhoods where many racial and ethnic minority individuals reside.

"Along with efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, efforts to mitigate the adverse outcomes of extreme temperatures for population health are needed," the authors concluded.