The Quad stripped bare

Editor's note: Daryl Guppy, a special commentator for CGTN, is an international financial technical analysis expert. He has provided weekly Shanghai Index analyses for mainland Chinese media for more than a decade. Guppy appears regularly on CNBC Asia and is known as "The Chart Man." He is a former national board member of the Australia China Business Council. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

Smacking of desperation, the hasty one-day Quad meeting in Delaware, the U.S., dispensed with the pretense that this four-sided partnership was not aimed at encircling China. The agenda was squarely focused on containing and countering China.

The Quad declared that China is a growing threat to global stability and prosperity. Despite this, the Quad agenda is not driven by the United States, nor by its most enthusiastic supporter, Australia. The Quad agenda is set by its least committed member and is carefully crafted in response to the influence of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Three of the Quad members tip-toe around India's persistent breaking of U.S. sanctions against Russia.

Ever keen to pursue sanctions breakers, the U.S. has misused and distorted the integrity of the SWIFT international trade system and bullied countries and companies which, in the opinion of the U.S., have broken the often-unilateral sanctions imposed by the U.S. but not India.

Indian imports of Russian oil have increased 13-fold since sanctions were imposed on Russia, purchasing $2.8 billion in 2024. After the Indian election, Prime Minister Modi visited Russia, which was his first trip to the country since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022. It was a visit that developed and entrenched more sanctions-busting trade and economic relationships that will enable Russia to continue to pursue its objectives in the Ukraine.

The effective ambit of the Quad is constrained by the need to appease India, lest it abandon this grand exercise against China. The partnership is only as strong as its least committed member because they may leave at any time. The need for appeasement hands India a powerful lever by which it is able to significantly advance its own interests in ways that may run counter to the claimed morality of the Quad members.

India has acted as chair of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) hosting the Defense Ministers' Meeting. The SCO is the world's largest regional organization in terms of geographic scope and population. Its remit includes political, economic, international security and defense issues, many of which are in direct contradiction to the Quad's aims.

New Delhi's contempt for aspects of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, makes the Quad's commitment to the rules-based order questionable. This Indian position puts it directly at odds with the raison d'être for participation in the "freedom of navigation" sail-throughs in the South China Sea.

The Indian double dealing was on show at the recent Quad meeting with patently false declarations of "a shared vision for a region that is governed by accepted rules and norms."

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese kept a laser-focus on the righteousness of the American position and the use of the Quad as a means of containing China. Australia will engage in any contortion necessary to keep the United States entangled in the Asia-Pacific region, declaring the Quad was a fundamental part of Australia's global strength.

Just a week earlier at the Asia Summit, Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong promoted Australian engagement and role in the region but reassured the U.S. that the alliance was Australia's highest priority when approaching the Asian region.

The unquestioning commitment to the Quad, despite India's unwavering and continued sanctions-busting deals with Russia, confirms a moral perfidy that undermines any Australian claim to be an independent player in the region.

Japan has adopted a more muscular approach to its regional position. Japan's genuine commitment to promoting a Quad supported rules-based global order remains unclear as it uses any means to further entangle the U.S. in the region.

Japan has constructed a multi-layered web of partnerships, with the Japan-U.S. alliance at its center. The Quad is but one of the threads in Japan's emerging Asia-Pacific vision which is predicated on countering competition from China.

The purpose of this Quad meeting smacks of a last hurrah before a potential change in the U.S. government, which may be tempted to treat the Quad as less of a priority. To this end, the meeting tore away the veil of ambiguity, moving China to the front and center of the discussion.

If there was any doubt previously, it is now clear that the four sides of the Quad are intending to encircle China at every turn, including clean energy, health security, critical and emerging technologies, cyber resilience, infrastructure, space, maritime security and counter-terrorism.

It is clear that respect for a genuine solution has been abandoned, and encircling China will only backfire on Quad.

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