Editor's note: Seymur Mammadov, a special commentator for CGTN, is the director of the international expert club EurAsiaAz. The article was first published by News.Az on September 24, 2024. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

Recently, a China-Europe Freight Train (Xi'an) Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR, also known as the Middle Corridor) departure ceremony was held in Xi'an's Chanba International Port, marking the fact that Xi'an's participation in the construction of TITR had taken a new step.

Just a year or two ago, international and even local experts were pessimistic about the prospects of the Middle Corridor, claiming that the TITR, actively promoted by Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, was pointless and would never gain recognition in the East or the West.

For a time, it seemed that China, the key player in this logistics project, and Europe, China's main trading partner, were leaning toward the southern transit route.

It's worth recalling that on June 28, the first freight train via the Middle Corridor departed from Nanjing, the capital of Jiangsu Province, bound for Istanbul. The train consisted of 110 containers loaded with household appliances and essential goods.

Following this event, the China Railway Group announced that it had designated 87 routes for trains traveling from China to Europe and 39 routes for trains from China to Asia. It also intensified efforts to organize train movements along the China-Europe and China-Asia routes via the TITR. Since then, the China-Europe train schedule has been expanded.

The increasing freight traffic from China via the Middle Corridor can be seen in statistics recently published in Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, which hosted an event called the "Black Sea-Caspian Logistics Forum 2024: Corridors, Cargo, Infrastructure," which was accompanied by a meeting of heads of railway administrations from seven countries to discuss the Baku-initiated International Association "Eurasian Transport Route."

During the meetings, some remarkable numbers were shared. Since the beginning of the year, 212 container trains, equivalent to 420,000 tons of cargo, have traveled along the TITR. For comparison, only 11 block trains traveled this route from China in 2023. This significant increase in figures clearly demonstrates China's growing interest in the Middle Corridor. It's expected that by the end of the year, 300 container trains from China will have passed along the TITR.

On average, trains travel from China to Azerbaijan taking between eight to 10 days and reach Georgian ports in 12 days. In the current geopolitical situation, where the northern and southern routes are blocked for global trade due to military conflicts and the activities of various armed groups along traditional logistics routes, the Middle Corridor remains the safest option.

Attempts to offer alternative cargo transportation routes have proven unprofitable and risky, as proposed projects would pass through potentially unstable regions. As a result, China and its European partners have chosen the TITR. At the same time, the countries along the Middle Corridor are very interested in ensuring China's involvement in the projects, despite clear signals from the U.S. State Department and previous unequivocal wishes expressed by European officials.

In any scenario, China remains a critical point along the Middle Corridor, as the route's efficiency and future depend on the participation of the second largest economy, which accounts for more than 18 percent of global GDP, and has been and continues to be one of the European Union's largest trading partners.

Yang Bin, Head of the China Railway Container Transport Corporation, noted during consultations in Baku that 40 Chinese cities are connected with 225 European cities via various transport routes, with the Middle Corridor becoming increasingly important. China is interested in increasing the flow of goods through the Eurasian region and joining the "Eurasian Transport Route" association.

China's commitment to the Middle Corridor was also emphasized in the Joint Declaration on the Establishment of a Strategic Partnership between the Republic of Azerbaijan and the People's Republic of China, signed on July 3 during the 24th Meeting of the Council of Heads of State of the Shanghai Cooperation Organizationheld in Astana by Chinese President Xi Jinping and Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev. The document highlighted China's intention to actively participate in the construction and use of the TITR.

The interest of one of the world's leading logistics companies, MAERSK, is also crucial for the development of the route. Irakli Danelia, MAERSK's Business Development Manager for Central Asia and the Caucasus, stated that the company is focused on developing the transit route through the Middle Corridor.

Liliana Krutonog, CEO of the Czech international transport and logistics company MALBI-trans, also spoke about her company's choice of the TITR. Previously, MALBI-trans operated along the Brest-Malaszewicze corridor but now plans to focus on the TITR. According to Krutonog, the company's clients are demanding alternative delivery routes to the Ukrainian one.

The importance of the TITR for Europe is evidenced by the European Union's intention to invest 10 billion euros in this route. The EU press service noted that "amid international crises – the change of power in Afghanistan, armed conflicts in Ukraine and the Gaza Strip – more funds should be invested in physical links between Europe and Central Asia, seeking alternatives for transport, energy and supply chains."

It is worth noting that the TITR connects China with Türkiye and Black Sea countries of the EU. The TITR begins at the China-Kazakhstan border (the 'Dostyk' and 'Altynkol' railway crossings) and follows by rail through Shymkent and Beineu to the ports of Aktau and Kuryk. Feeder or ferry vessels cross the Caspian Sea from the ports of Aktau and Kuryk to the port of Alat, followed by rail through Azerbaijan and Georgia to the ports of Poti and Batumi, with further delivery across the Black Sea. Another option is delivery along the Tbilisi–Akhalkalaki–Kars line (the Georgian section of the BTK) toward Istanbul or the ports of Izmir and Mersin.

The current capacity of the TITR is estimated at around 6 million tons of cargo annually (including up to 80,000 containers). The total volume of cargo transported by rail along the TITR in 2023 amounted to 2.76 million tons, an 86 percent increase compared to 2022. These figures were disclosed by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD).

From 2017 to 2023, more than 8 million tons of cargo, including 150,000 TEU, were transported via the TITR. According to the World Bank, freight volumes along the TITR are expected to triple by 2030. These figures clearly demonstrate that the Middle Corridor is highly valued. This means it holds great prospects.

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