Iran's missile attack on Israel and U.S. involvement in the region

Editor's note: Adam O. Erol, a special commentator on current affairs for CGTN, is a distinguished columnist known for his deep expertise in China, the Middle East, and Türkiye's foreign policies. His diverse background includes journalism and politics, enriching his analysis and commentary. This article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

On the evening of October 1, 2024, Iran launched a large-scale missile attack on Israel, marking a significant escalation in the already tense relations between the two nations. Israeli authorities have indicated that a retaliatory response is likely, while U.S. President Joe Biden has swiftly ordered American forces to assist Israel in defending against the Iranian strikes. This development has not only heightened tensions in the Middle East but also raised questions about the deeper motivations behind U.S. intervention and the potential long-term consequences of this conflict.

The Middle East on the brink: escalating tensions and regional dynamics

The missile attacks and Israel's potential retaliation come amid a broader pattern of rising hostilities in the Middle East. The region, long plagued by proxy wars, sectarian violence, and geopolitical rivalries, has become a flashpoint for a series of interconnected conflicts involving key actors like Iran, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and now the United States.

Iran's missile strikes on Israel represent more than just a military escalation; they are a clear signal of Tehran's willingness to assert its influence in the region and challenge Israel's military dominance. Iran's longstanding support for Hezbollah in Lebanon, various militias in Syria and Iraq, and even Palestinian factions like Hamas have cemented its role as a regional power willing to confront Israel directly. The latest missile attacks, while unprecedented in their scale, are part of this broader strategy of using both direct and proxy confrontations to project Iranian power across the Middle East.

Israel, which views Iran as an existential threat due to its nuclear ambitions and regional alliances, has responded to these provocations with military strikes on Iranian targets in Syria and Iraq in the past. However, the missile attacks on Israeli soil mark a significant turning point. If Israel follows through on its promise to respond "in kind," the conflict could quickly spiral into a broader war, which could result in devastating consequences for the region's already fragile stability.

Meanwhile, other key players in the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states, are watching these developments closely. Saudi Arabia and Iran are engaged in a decades-long rivalry for dominance in the region, with both countries backing opposing sides in various conflicts, such as in Yemen and Syria. The escalating Israel-Iran tensions could push these nations into deeper involvement, either through direct military action or by supplying resources to their respective allies. This would exacerbate the sectarian divisions in the region, particularly between Sunni and Shia populations, further destabilizing the Middle East.

U.S. involvement: motivations and long-term implications

The rapid deployment of American forces by President Biden to assist Israel highlights the United States' deep-rooted commitment to its ally. However, this decision also raises important questions about the underlying motivations for U.S. involvement and the broader implications for its foreign policy in the Middle East.

First, U.S. support for Israel has been a cornerstone of its Middle Eastern policy for decades, driven by strategic, military and ideological considerations. Israel is often viewed as a vital partner for the U.S. in maintaining regional stability and countering the influence of Iran, which Washington sees as the primary destabilizing force in the region. By offering military assistance, Biden aims to demonstrate that the U.S. remains committed to protecting Israel and ensuring that its security is not compromised by Iranian aggression.

However, domestic political considerations may also influence Biden's decision to intervene. The U.S. is currently navigating a highly polarized political environment, and support for Israel often garners bipartisan approval.

Yet, while this immediate response may shore up domestic political support for the Democratic Party, the long-term consequences of overt U.S. involvement in this conflict could be far-reaching. The U.S. is still grappling with the aftermath of decades of military engagement in the Middle East. Any prolonged involvement in this escalating conflict between Israel and Iran risks drawing the U.S. into another protracted military engagement that could have significant human, financial and geopolitical costs.

Furthermore, U.S. intervention may complicate its broader diplomatic efforts in the region. While Israel remains a key ally, the U.S. has recently been working to repair relations with other regional players, including Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states, which have complicated relationships with Israel. A more active U.S. military role in defending Israel could strain these delicate diplomatic relationships, especially as many Arab states remain sympathetic to the Palestinian cause and are wary of Iran's influence.

Moreover, U.S. involvement risks inflaming anti-American sentiment across the region, particularly among populations that view American foreign policy as heavily biased toward Israel at the expense of Palestinian and Arab interests. This could lead to further destabilization in countries with fragile governments, such as Iraq and Lebanon. It may also encourage terrorist organizations like ISIS, which thrive on regional chaos and use anti-Western sentiment as a recruitment tool.

All this points to a dangerous escalation in the region's already volatile landscape. While the immediate focus is on preventing further violence, the long-term implications of this conflict could have far-reaching effects on global geopolitics, particularly for the United States.

For the U.S., this situation represents a test of its foreign policy priorities and its ability to navigate complex relationships in the Middle East. While its support for Israel remains, the broader consequences of military involvement must be carefully weighed. A prolonged conflict between Iran and Israel, with U.S. forces directly involved, risks destabilizing the entire region and drawing the U.S. into another costly, potentially unwinnable war.

In this volatile moment, the international community must act quickly to de-escalate tensions, promote dialogue, and prevent the conflict from spiraling further out of control. The future of the Middle East and the global order may well depend on it.

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