National Day holiday witnesses a promising future for China's economy

Editor's note: Liu Chunsheng, a special commentator on current affairs for CGTN, is an associate professor at the Beijing-based Central University of Finance and Economics. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

During the 2024 National Day holiday, China's economy exhibited a stabilizing and improving trend. This positive signal injected a strong impetus into efforts to achieve its annual economic targets.

During the holiday, data on cross-regional personnel mobility, visitor reception at urban parks, and movie box office revenues highlighted the vibrancy of the consumer market. On October 5, cross-regional personnel mobility exceeded 280 million, and urban parks across the country received over 121 million visitors in the first five days of the holiday. As of 1:14 PM on October 6, the box office revenue during the National Day holiday period surpassed 1.8 billion yuan. Behind these figures lies the vigorous development of the holiday economy and the effective release of domestic demand potential.

The formation of this favorable trend is closely related to the spirit of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee meeting held on September 26, 2024, and the related policies issued. The meeting emphasized the importance of promoting sustained and healthy economic development and formulated a series of policy measures to stabilize economic growth, facilitate industrial upgrading, and expand domestic demand. These policies began to take effect during the National Day holiday, playing a crucial role in improving market expectations.

The real estate market showed positive changes during the National Day holiday. Influenced by the intensive release of real estate policies, many regions actively responded to the spirit of the Political Bureau meeting by implementing city-specific measures to stimulate its vitality. Sales offices in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen were bustling with activity, and the online signing of new homes also showed a significant rebound. During the holiday, the number of property viewings and visits, reflecting homebuyers' intentions, surged significantly.

Sales of commercial residential properties in many regions increased to varying degrees, and market confidence partially recovered. According to data from the Shenzhen Zhongyuan Research Center, from October 1 to 3, the volume of new home sales in Shenzhen increased by 569 percent year-on-year, while the volume of second-hand home sales increased by 233 percent year-on-year.

The consumer market was also thriving during the National Day holiday. Nearly 3,200 special events were held in urban parks, attracting a large number of visitors and driving surrounding consumption. The fervor in the movie market also added vitality to the consumer market. Meanwhile, promotional activities launched by local governments and businesses further stimulated consumers' shopping enthusiasm.

Visiting auto shows became a popular choice for many consumers. Combined with the trade-in subsidy policy, Suzhou, Lanzhou, Xi'an, Fuzhou, Tianjin, Nanjing, and other cities held auto shows, attracting a large number of consumers to visit and purchase vehicles. Apart from the discounts offered by various automakers, consumers could apply for subsidies through scrapping and replacing their old vehicles, enjoying double benefits.

The cultural and tourism industry was booming. Tourist attractions across the country were crowded during the National Day holiday, and the substantial increase in visitor reception at urban parks was a microcosm of the prosperity in the cultural and tourism industry.

At the same time, the daily vehicle crossings at the Zhuhai-Macau-Hong Kong Bridge Zhuhai Port exceeded 20,000 for the first time, with over 14,500 being Hong Kong and Macau single-plate vehicles. This not only reflected the convenience of inter-regional transportation but also provided favorable conditions for the development of the cultural and tourism industry, promoting inter-regional cultural and tourism exchanges and cooperation.

Boosted by the spirit of the Political Bureau meeting on September 26, China's mainland capital market surged significantly before the National Day holiday. Although the A-share market was closed during the holiday, the Hong Kong stock market was exceptionally active, with trading volume reaching a historic high, attracting global investors' attention.

The Hang Seng Index rose by 7.59 percent during the National Day holiday, while the Hang Seng TECH Index rose by 10perccent. After recent continuous rallies, the Hong Kong stock market's performance within the year ranked first among global major indices, leading the U.S. and Japanese stock markets. The volume of northbound funds, regarded as a "channel" for foreign investment, has recently doubled. Both the MSCI China Index and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index, which track the performance of Chinese concept stocks, reached new highs in their gains.

Looking forward to the prospects of China's economy in the fourth quarter, we have reasons to be optimistic. The sustained efforts of policies will further consolidate the stabilizing and improving trend of the economy. The spirit of the Political Bureau meeting will continue to guide local governments in formulating and implementing policies conducive to economic development. For instance, in the real estate market, policies may be further optimized to promote stable and healthy development. In the consumer market, measures to stimulate consumption and expand domestic demand may continue to be introduced.

However, we should also clearly recognize that economic development still faces some challenges. The uncertainty of the global economic situation and the intensifying competition in the domestic market may have certain impacts on economic growth. Therefore, while maintaining optimism, we should closely monitor changes in the economic situation and timely adjust policy measures to address potential risks and challenges.

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