Israel-Iran missile blitz: Specter of wider war looms

Editor's note: Bobby Naderi is a London-based journalist, a guest contributor in print, radio and television, and a documentary filmmaker. This article reflects the author's opinions, and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

The idea of Israel and Iran bombing each other directly is no longer unimaginable: Israel reportedly destroyed Iran's air defense systems on October 26 in response to an Iranian large-scale missile attack early this month against Israel's military bases.

In the wake of Israel's attack, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei called for a balanced but serious response. Khamenei warned that, while the direct attack should not be exaggerated, it must also not be dismissed.

With the United States focusing on deterring threats from Iran and its affiliates, including Hamas (Gaza Strip), Hezbollah (Lebanon), the Houthis (Yemen), and Iraq- and Syria-based militant groups, this has to be more than just a short-term flare-up; rather, it is part of a much broader rivalry for which there can be no easy solution.

Rising geopolitical risks

The latest spate of missile exchange underlines the depth of irreconcilable goals that could set the stage for a bigger offensive in nearby regions. A potential for miscalculation remains perilously high as long as neither of the heavily armed adversaries appears to be retreating from aggressive posturing.

The Jewish state's activities have not been much curbed by Washington's demands for moderation, underscoring a widening rift that leaves the U.S. isolated in a confrontation that has the potential to engulf the entire region. The danger of entangling outside forces in the conflict only grows when the Pentagon states that it supports Israel's right to self-defense with deep pockets and limitless indulgence.

Against the backdrop of this geopolitical nightmare, Israel, a close U.S. defense partner and possessor of its own nuclear weapons arsenal, is already engaged in intense combat with Hamas in the ghastly rubble of Gaza. It is also dealing with similar tensions along its border with Lebanon, where Hezbollah remains a constant danger.

A first-order concern is that with hundreds of thousands of Palestinians displaced within Gaza and countless civilians in Israel and Lebanon prepared to endure the worst levels of violence, more deadly conflicts are sure to follow that could reshape the global political order.

Fear of losing strategic advantage

It seems fair to assume that the resolve of Israel and Iran to persist in retaliatory strikes spurs a future that is precariously unstable. This isn't just a bilateral conflict – it's regional. The proxy groups are ready to escalate, turning a small conflict into an all-out war. The stakes are incredibly high, as the tit-for-tat cycle threatens to plunge the Middle East into chaos.

Iran's network of proxy forces in other places, including Shia and Houthi militias in Iraq and Yemen, allows it to retaliate against Israeli actions indirectly, further adding layers of complexity. For its part, Israel has continued its targeted strikes against its proxy enemies with U.S. military forces on board. This cycle of violence is self-sustaining, as each action provokes another, making diplomatic intervention increasingly difficult.

Lastly, both Israel and Iran perceive each other as vulnerable, fearing that any sign of weakness is exploited to a higher level of threat. It is this suspicion that makes them both adopt harder and more grudging positions.

A bleak path forward

The animosity between Tehran and Tel Aviv is entrenched in decades of ideological hostility, with Iran's leadership openly calling for Israel's destruction and Israel viewing Iran's regime as an existential threat. This ideological divide fuels a hardline stance from both sides.

Accordingly, both countries view their military strikes and asymmetric moves as essential to asserting dominance. Iran seeks to expand its influence across the Middle East through alliances with Hezbollah, Hamas, and Houthi militants, while Israel sees curbing Iran's influence through U.S. alliance as crucial for its own security.

In the current atmosphere, a resolution seems distant as both sides strike each other directly. Israel fears that not responding to Iranian aggression would embolden Tehran and its allies, while Iran fears that any show of weakness could invite further attacks or increase pressure from Tel Aviv and Washington. This mutual perception of vulnerability pushes both countries to pursue retaliatory actions lest they risk appearing weak.

The warnings are coming loud and fast. The feared broader conflict in the Middle East has begun, which could destabilize neighboring countries and fuel a humanitarian crisis of unprecedented scale. The urgency to encourage restraint through international diplomacy and backchannel negotiations has never been more critical.

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