U.S. militarization of South China Sea to grow, but stability remains: experts

Chinese experts said on Tuesday that the U.S.-led militarization of the South China Sea will likely intensify, despite the upcoming change in leadership at the White House. However, they also stressed that the overall strategic stability in the region will keep steady.

The remarks came during a recent discussion hosted by the South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative (SCSPI), an organization that tracks ship activities in the waters.

Wu Shicun, the director of the academic committee of China's National Institute for South China Sea Studies explained that although the U.S. military presence in the region would continue to grow, the shift in U.S. leadership could alter the specific dynamics.

"The U.S.-led militarization of the South China Sea will intensify, but will be different as the White House changes hands. Unilateral actions by claimant states will become more diverse," said Wu.

He also pointed out that while the "simplified version" of the Code of Conduct (COC) in the South China Sea can be used as a tool for de-escalating disputes, it can barely constrain the behavior of individual nations.

Wu said the "simplified version" of the COC means the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC), which was signed by China and the members of ASEAN in 2002 to avoid conflicts in the waters. Meanwhile, the initial intention of China and ASEAN was to formulate the COC, a more specific version of the declaration.

According to the SCSPI Report on the Navigation and Overflight Situation in the South China Sea, the U.S. military maintains a significant presence in the area. The U.S. military logs more than 5,000 ship-days annually and conducts around 8,000 sorties of military aircraft in the region.

Despite concerns over rising militarization, experts remain "cautiously optimistic" about the broader strategic outlook for the South China Sea. They said that while there are localized tensions, the situation in the South China Sea is far less volatile than media and some Western countries narratives suggest.

Professor Hu Bo, director of SCSPI and director of the Center for Maritime Strategy Studies at Peking University, said that both China and the U.S. share a strong consensus on avoiding direct conflict despite actively preparing for the "worst case scenarios."

Looking at regional players, experts also discussed the evolving role of the Philippines, which has been involved in maritime disputes with China in the South China Sea.

Hu said "The Philippines' desire to leverage U.S.-China strategic competition and directly involve the former in its territorial ambitions holds little appeal in the U.S."

Ding Duo, the vice director of the Research Center of Oceans Law and Policy at the National Institute for the South China Sea Studies said that the Philippines may continue its "low-intensity" manner with China, potentially leveraging U.S.-China strategic competition to further its territorial claims.

Ding suggested that the Philippines may take advantage of the current geopolitical dynamic to sign the Maritime Zone Act to solidify illegal gains and expand unilateral claims in the form of domestic legislation.

Experts concluded that the U.S. will continue to intervene in South China Sea affairs to protect their interests in the region. But they hoped that the U.S. will continue to sail its vessels through the region under the use of Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs).

The South China Sea is the busiest and most prosperous sea in the world. According to Hu, various types of ships pass through the South China Sea over 1.5 million times annually, with around 40 percent of global goods trade transiting the South China Sea and its surrounding straits.