Mexico warns Trump tariffs would kill 400,000 U.S. jobs, threatens retaliation

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said on Wednesday Mexico would retaliate if U.S. President-elect Donald Trump followed through with his proposed 25 percent across-the-board tariff, a move her government warned could kill 400,000 U.S. jobs and drive up prices for U.S. consumers.

"If there are U.S. tariffs, Mexico would also raise tariffs," Sheinbaum said during a press conference, in her clearest statement yet that the country was preparing possible retaliatory trade measures against its top trade partner.

Mexican Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard, speaking alongside Sheinbaum, called for more regional cooperation and integration instead of a war of retaliatory import taxes.

"It's a shot in the foot," Ebrard said of Trump's proposed tariffs, which appear to violate the USMCA trade deal between Mexico, Canada and the U.S.

Ebrard warned the tariffs would lead to massive U.S. job losses, lower growth and hit U.S. companies producing in Mexico by effectively doubling the taxes they paid. "The impact on companies is huge," he said.

The proposed tariffs would hit the automotive sector's top cross-border exporters especially hard, Ebrard added, namely Ford, General Motors and Stellantis.

Ebrard noted that 88 percent of pickup trucks sold in the U.S. are made in Mexico and would see a price increase. These vehicles are popular in rural areas that overwhelmingly voted for Trump.

"Our estimate is that the average price of these vehicles will increase by $3,000," Ebrard said.

Sheinbaum and Trump spoke by phone later on Wednesday, the Mexican president said on social-media platform X, adding the two discussed "strengthening collaboration on security issues" and that the conversation was "excellent."

Trump has said the tariffs would remain in effect until the flow of drugs – particularly fentanyl – and migrants into the U.S. was controlled.

Sheinbaum added migrant caravans are no longer arriving at the U.S.-Mexico border "because they are attended to" in Mexico.

A caravan of several thousand migrants had been heading through southern Mexico but numbers have dwindled in recent days.

Many analysts regard Trump's tariff threats as more of a negotiating tactic than trade policy.

"The lack of a clear link between this threat and questions related to trade suggests the new president plans to use tariffs as a negotiating strategy to achieve goals largely unrelated to trade," said David Kohl, chief economist at Julius Baer.