Lai playing with fire in transit trip to U.S. territory

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Taiwan regional leader Lai Ching-te "stopped over" in the U.S. territory of Hawaii over the weekend as part of a trip to the South Pacific. Some separatists boast about the red-carpet welcome and a standing ovation Lai received in Hawaii and the 20-minute phone talk with former U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

Lai is obviously playing a very risky game at a time in which the United States is anticipating a change of administration in a few months and, for all intents and purposes, a major policy change. Lai is evidently jockeying for a position to utilize the change of government for his own purposes, a move that carries with it a great deal of risk for himself and peace in the Asia-Pacific.

The attitude that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump will adopt toward Taiwan question is not terribly clear. He has even made it known that any future defense costs for the region should be covered by Taiwan itself. He has also not shown any particular "sympathy" for Lai's party's push for greater "independence" for Taiwan.

Trump's concern with China is primarily economic rather than ideological. He feels, albeit mistakenly, that China is benefiting from America's economic woes because of "unfair" trade. There has been no indication that he would be interested, however, in "going to bat" for any foolish moves by a Taiwan leader pushing toward "Taiwan independence."

There will be, however, individuals in the Trump group as well as in the U.S. Congress, who are willing to make Taiwan an issue in the next administration. Some of these people may well be encouraging Lai to make these provocative trips, thus providing them a pretext for focusing on the Taiwan question.

As the Chinese central government has expressed its concern that Lai's provocative trip could lead to further military demonstrations around the island, this scenario could provide anti-China hawks around Trump with more grist for their mill, beating the drums for more aid to Taiwan.

The entire scenario, however, would ultimately be devastating for the people of Taiwan. Much of the prosperity they have enjoyed over the last few decades has not been through trade – or even relations – with the United States, but through trade with the mainland. Much of this prosperity has been curtailed in recent years by the provocations of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) leadership.

From a military point of view, any move that escalates into a military conflict in the Asia Pacific would be devastating for Taiwan as the lines of communication to the United States are separated by thousands of miles.

Taiwan, as the tip of the "spear" in a major China-U.S. conflict, would quickly break under the very geography of the situation. This is clearly understood by most of the people of Taiwan, but the DPP agitators seem either totally oblivious to this reality or foolishly believe that their political provocations will never lead to military conflict. The recent drills by the People's Liberation Army around the island in response to similar political provocations should have served as a lesson to dispel such illusions.

The world has tough lessons to learn from West-led crises in history, lessons that should not be ignored by forces in Taiwan capable of curbing a leader who is playing a very risky game that could be disastrous for himself and the people of Taiwan.

The author William Jones is the former Washington bureau chief for Executive Intelligence Review News Service and a non-resident fellow of the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies.

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