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News analysis: What's next for Syria and the Middle East?

CGTN

 , Updated 13:32, 09-Dec-2024
Traffic in al-Qutayfah on the outskirts of Damascus after rebels declared that they have taken the Syrian capital, December 8, 2024. /CFP
Traffic in al-Qutayfah on the outskirts of Damascus after rebels declared that they have taken the Syrian capital, December 8, 2024. /CFP

Traffic in al-Qutayfah on the outskirts of Damascus after rebels declared that they have taken the Syrian capital, December 8, 2024. /CFP

Hours after their capture of Damascus that led to the collapse of President Bashar al-Assad's rule, opposition fighters announced a curfew in the Syrian capital on Sunday, effective from 4:00 p.m. to 5:00 a.m. local time.

Meanwhile, Assad, according to a statement by the Russian Foreign Ministry, has resigned as president and left the country, while calling for a peaceful transfer of power.

The situation in Syria is rapidly changing. What is next for the country and the Middle East at large?

A power vacuum

Song Xiaojun, a commentator for China Media Group, says the current situation in Syria has created a power vacuum as the opposition forces are advancing at an astonishing speed.

Chief among them is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) rebel group, which previously had ties with Al-Qaida and is still designated as a terrorist organization by several major countries and the United Nations.

If HTS becomes the main force filling Syria's power vacuum in the future, its approach to addressing its identity will be closely observed, Song said.

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Wang Jin, assistant director of the Institute of Middle East Studies at Northwest University of China, said various factions within Syria are expected to engage in dialogue.

"However, if such mediation and coordination mechanisms fail to be effective in the short term, new conflicts may arise," Wang told CGTN on Sunday.

Additionally, domestic forces in Syria will face challenges in coordinating with the Iranian, Russian and American military presences in the country, he said.

More importantly, the interaction between the Kurdish armed forces and opposition fighters could significantly impact the future direction of Syria's domestic affairs, Wang added.

New regional balance of power?

The dramatic changes in Syria might reshape the balance of power in the Middle East, with Wang saying new power struggles may arise among Israel, Türkiye, Iran and others.

Israel is particularly concerned about the Golan Heights and the storage of chemical weapons in Syria, while Iran is more focused on its officials and military personnel who have not yet been evacuated, Wang explained.

All parties are sure to get involved in renewed communications and power struggles, he said. However, due to the rapid development of the situation in Syria, it may take them some time to assess the situation and take a wait-and-see approach, Wang added.

Niu Xinchun, executive director of the China-Arab Research Institute at Ningxia University, said the situation in Syria is expected to remain highly tense in the near future.

Syria is at a crossroads in the Middle East and its situation will affect neighboring countries, said Niu.

Türkiye, Iraq, Lebanon, Israel and Jordan have all sealed their borders with Syria, and deployed troops to prevent the spread of chaos, he explained.

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