Syrian government collapses in sudden upheaval with uncertain future

Syrians awakened on Monday to an uncertain future after Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has reportedly resigned and arrived in Russia for asylum as his government collapsed on Sunday following a sweeping offensive by militant groups.

The groups, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), waged a major offensive from northern Syria since November 27, and have since swept southwards through government-held areas, capturing the capital Damascus within 12 days.

The fall of al-Assad's government brought a surprise end to the nearly 14-year Syrian civil war, adding to uncertainties for both the war-torn nation and the broader Middle East.

Sweeping offensive

Although the Syrian government and militant groups have been at deadly feud with each other since 2011, large-scale military conflicts largely grounded to a halt in 2020. The recent offensive, however, has taken the government by storm, showcasing a formidable momentum from the outset.

Within just days, the groups captured the central province of Hama, after overrunning key territories in the northwestern provinces of Aleppo and Idlib.

The decisive moment came in the early hours of Sunday. Following a brief, but intense battle at dawn, fighters gained complete control of Homs, a crucial city and strategic crossroads about 160 kilometers north of Damascus, cutting off connections between Damascus and the coastal strongholds of al-Assad's Alawite community.

In the wake of the advance, the fighters made their way into the capital. State television channels aired scenes of them moving through the streets of the city and inside the presidential palace.

Soon after the fall of Damascus, Syrian Prime Minister Mohammad Ghazi Al-Jallali announced his readiness to cooperate with any leadership chosen by the Syrian people.

HTS leader Ahmed Al-Sharaa, also known as Abu Mohammad Al-Julani, declared Al-Jallali would oversee public institutions until an official transfer of authority is completed.

"We extend our hands to every Syrian citizen committed to safeguarding the country's resources," Al-Jallali said in a televised address. "Syria belongs to all Syrians, and I urge everyone to think rationally about the nation's best interests."

Uncertain future

Even though al-Assad called for a peaceful transfer of power in a statement through Russia and the HTS has also shown willingness to achieve a stable handover, analysts believe that a dramatic change in authority will add to uncertainties for Syria's future.

On the one hand, there are numerous militant groups within Syria, each with their distinct political agenda, noted Ding Long, a Chinese expert on Middle East affairs at Shanghai International Studies University.

Disagreements and conflicts within militant groups could still lead to renewed turmoil in Syria, said Ding.

There is no doubt that a complete overhaul of the constitution and the political system will be seen in Syria, James Dorsey, an adjunct senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Nanyang Technological University, told CGTN.

Syria will establish a constitutional order, after an 18-month transition period and elections, the expert added.

On the other, Syria has long been plagued by extremism and terrorism. Even the HTS is still classified as a terrorist group by the United Nations, the United States, and Türkiye, among others. Some countries have expressed concern that with the HTS in power, extremism and terrorism may rear their heads once again amid the turmoil in the country.

"We have to be watchful during this transition period," Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said following the militants' victory. "We are in communication with the groups to make sure that terrorist organizations ... are not taking advantage of the situation."

Echoing his Turkish counterpart, Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty underscored the importance of preventing the spread of terrorism in Syria.

Anti-terrorism in Syria is also a focus for Iran, a staunch supporter of al-Assad.

In a statement, the Iranian Foreign Ministry stressed the necessity to end military conflicts in the country as soon as possible, prevent terrorist actions, and initiate national talks with the participation of all segments of Syrian society to form an inclusive government representing all Syrian people.

For the broader international community, restoring peace and stability in Syria is the primary expectation. The Chinese Foreign Ministry called on relevant parties on Monday to act in the fundamental interests of the Syrian people and find a political solution to restore stability in Syria as soon as possible.

"The future of Syria should be decided by the Syrian people. We hope that all relevant parties, guided by the principle of responsibility for the long-term and fundamental interests of the Syrian people, will seek political means to restore stability and order as soon as possible," spokesperson Mao Ning said during a daily press briefing.

Given Syria's crucial role in the current geopolitical landscape of the Middle East, analysts suggest that the collapse of al-Assad's rule could have far-reaching consequences for the region.

The collapse of the situation in Syria not only caused turmoil in the country, but also brought more instability to the Middle East, Gao Zhikai, vice president of the Center for China and Globalization told China Media Group (CMG) recently.

The situation in Syria is currently at a critical turning point, and the prospects are not clear, which may escalate the crisis in the Middle East and lead to further tension in the region, Gao noted.

(With input from agencies)