Shifting dynamics in Syria highlight a nation on the brink of change

Editor's note: Adam O. Erol, a special commentator on current affairs for CGTN, is a distinguished columnist known for his deep expertise in China, the Middle East, and Türkiye's foreign policies. His diverse background includes journalism and politics, enriching his analysis and commentary. This article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

The recent dramatic developments in Syria have reshaped the country's trajectory, upending decades of Bashar al-Assad's rule and plunging the region into a new phase of uncertainty. With the fall of Damascus and the Assad government in apparent disarray, the political and military dynamics of Syria and the broader Middle East are rapidly evolving. This shift significantly impacts regional players such as Türkiye, the United States and beyond.

The collapse of the Syrian government marks a pivotal moment in the country's protracted civil war. Although the transfer of power appears less like a battlefield defeat and more like a negotiated handover, it signals the end of an era dominated by Assad's rule.

Armed opposition forces, mainly the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), had surged southward, capturing Aleppo, Hama and Homs before advancing on the capital. These gains, supported by widespread defections within Assad's military, demonstrate the political power's dwindling capacity to maintain control. Damascus, once a symbol of central authority, now faces political and social fragmentation, with opposition forces consolidating power across northern and western Syria.

Notably, HTS has sought to project an image of moderation, distancing itself from extremist roots by engaging diplomatically with various factions, including Kurdish groups and minority communities. This strategic rebranding underscores a calculated effort to gain international legitimacy and secure its role in post-Assad Syria.

Türkiye's strategic calculations

Türkiye's involvement in Syria has reached a critical juncture. For years, Ankara has pursued a multifaceted strategy aimed at securing its southern border, countering Kurdish autonomy movements and managing refugee flows. The recent developments have intensified Türkiye's role as a key stakeholder in shaping Syria's future.

Türkiye-backed forces, operating under the Syrian National Army (SNA), have played a significant role in stabilizing areas vacated by Assad's forces. Meanwhile, Türkiye's tacit approval of HTS movements through its controlled zones highlights Ankara's pragmatic approach to navigating the conflict's complexities. However, this strategy carries risks, particularly as HTS expands its territorial reach and asserts greater control.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has emphasized the need for a peaceful and inclusive resolution to the Syrian conflict. However, Türkiye's geopolitical priorities, including its stance on Kurdish autonomy and its broader regional aspirations, place Ankara in a delicate balancing act. The presence of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), backed by the U.S.-led coalition, in eastern Syria further complicates Türkiye's calculus, raising questions about potential clashes over territorial and political influence.

The U.S. dual approach

The U.S. has maintained a dual strategy in Syria, supporting Kurdish-led SDF forces in the east while indirectly benefiting from HTS advances against Assad. This approach underscores Washington's broader goal of countering Iranian influence and preventing the resurgence of extremist groups in the region.

The SDF's control over key territories reflects U.S. intent to establish a buffer zone that disrupts Iranian and Assad government logistics. However, the coexistence of HTS and SDF forces introduces a paradox. While the two groups have divergent ideologies and agendas, their parallel gains have reshaped the Syrian map in ways that align with U.S. strategic objectives.

President-elect Donald Trump's recent remarks suggest a potential shift in U.S. policy, adding another layer of uncertainty. A reduced American footprint in Syria could create a power vacuum, intensifying competition among regional actors, including Türkiye, to fill the void.

Syria's fragmentation poses significant challenges for the Middle East. The country's territorial divisions – HTS dominance in the west, SDF control in the east, and remnants of Assad loyalists along the coast – reflect a broader trend of disintegration. This new reality could spur similar movements in neighboring countries, destabilizing the region further.

For Türkiye, the conflict's outcome directly impacts national security. Ankara must navigate the delicate dynamics of engaging with HTS while countering Kurdish ambitions. Moreover, managing the influx of refugees and ensuring stability along its border remains paramount.

For the U.S., the post-Assad landscape offers opportunities and challenges. While the weakening of Iran's foothold in Syria aligns with U.S. objectives, sustaining influence in a fractured country requires a long-term commitment to supporting local partners and preventing the rise of new threats.

Syria's current trajectory raises profound questions about its future. The fall of Assad has not brought clarity but intensified uncertainties about governance, territorial integrity and regional stability. The international community, particularly Türkiye and the U.S., must work collaboratively to address these challenges, prioritize humanitarian aid and support mechanisms for inclusive governance.

Ultimately, Syria's transformation will shape the Middle East for decades. Whether the nation emerges from this turmoil as a unified state or succumbs to prolonged fragmentation depends on the actions of key stakeholders and the resilience of its people.

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