Transfer of power underway in Syria amid uncertain future

Syria's Islamist rebel leader on Monday began discussions on transferring power, a day after his opposition alliance dramatically unseated President Bashar al-Assad.

Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, now using his real name Ahmed al-Sharaa, met with Prime Minister Mohammed al-Jalali "to coordinate a transfer of power that guarantees the provision of services" to Syrians, said a statement posted on their Telegram channels.

The Syrian parliament said it supports "the will of the people to build a new Syria towards a better future governed by law and justice."

The Ba'ath Party said it will support "a transitional phase in Syria aimed at defending the unity of the country."

Rooted in Syria's branch of Al-Qaeda, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) is proscribed by Western governments as a terrorist group but has sought to soften its image in recent years.

Germany and France said in a statement they were ready to cooperate with Syria's new leadership "on the basis of fundamental human rights and the protection of ethnic and religious minorities."

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said, "We have a clear interest in doing what we can to avoid the fragmentation of Syria, mass migrations from Syria and, of course, the export of terrorism and extremism."

Israeli, Turkish strikes

Israel, which borders Syria, sent troops into a buffer zone on the east of the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights after Assad's fall, in what Foreign Minister Gideon Saar described as a "limited and temporary step" for "security reasons."

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights war monitor reported more than 100 Israeli air strikes to "destroy the former regime's military capabilities."

Lebanon's Hezbollah condemned the strikes late on Monday, lambasting Israel for "occupying more land in the Golan Heights."

In northern Syria, a Turkish drone strike on a Kurdish-held area killed 11 civilians, six of them children, according to the Britain-based observatory.

UN humanitarians on Monday described the situation in Syria as chaotic and fluid, with more than 16 million people in the country requiring assistance and 1 million people displaced from their homes in the west and northwest alone from November 28 to December 8.

What lies ahead?

Governments across the Middle East region as well as in the Western world are scrambling to forge new links with HTS to find a solution to the political crisis in Syria.

Speaking at a State Department briefing, spokesperson Matthew Miller said, "We have been engaging in those conversations over the past few days. The Secretary himself has been engaged in conversations with countries that have influence inside Syria, and we'll continue to do that." When asked if the U.S. was looking to engage with al-Jolani himself, Miller declined to say but he did not rule it out either.

Türkiye has troops on the ground in northwest Syria and provides support to some of the rebels there.

As various factions in Syria and a number of external forces are hurrying to reshuffle the cards, experts warned there may be further risks and conflicts.

Wang Jin, assistant director of the Institute of Middle East Studies at Northwest University of China, noted rifts and conflicts exist not only between Syrian rebel groups, but also between states involved in the Syrian issue, including Türkiye, Russia, Iran, Jordan and Iraq, which have their own concerns and interests.

"Overall, the dramatic changes in the Syrian issue in a short period of time are beyond the expectations of all parties, and signal a new period of uncertainty in the Middle East," Wang said.

Niu Xinchun, professor at Ningxia University's China-Arab Research Institute, said the entire Middle East wants a peaceful transition to a national, united and inclusive government in Syria, while warning that there is also the possibility that Syria could fall into civil strife due to the struggle for power.

If Syria falls into civil war, it is possible that regional, national and global powers will once again intervene in Syria and plunge the country into a deeper disaster, Niu said, adding that for the region and the world, there will be a refugee crisis and also a spillover of terrorism.

Recently, European countries including Germany, UK and Sweden have put asylum applications from Syrians on hold until further notice, fearing a potential increase of illegal migration. 

(With input from agencies)