Middle East 2024: A region trapped in the quagmire of conflict

In 2024, the Middle East once again finds itself at the epicenter of global turbulence. Escalating tensions in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria and Sudan, coupled with the ongoing Red Sea crisis, have severely impacted regional and global security. These challenges have also heightened the desire for peace among the people of the region.

Escalation and spillover: a cycle of conflict

On October 7, 2023, a new round of large-scale conflict erupted between Israel and Palestine, surpassing expectations in intensity, duration, scope and impact.

Since the outbreak, Israel's military actions in Gaza have resulted in over 45,000 Palestinian deaths and more than 106,000 injuries. Even former Israeli Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon criticized the leadership for steering the nation toward "occupation, annexation, and ethnic cleansing" in Gaza.

The humanitarian crisis in Gaza is devastating. Gaza's Human Development Index has regressed to levels last seen 69 years ago, according to a report jointly released on October 22, 2023, by the United Nations Development Programme and the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia. Over 70 percent of civilian infrastructure, including homes, roads, hospitals and schools, has been damaged. Reconstruction costs are estimated at over $18.5 billion – 97 percent of Palestine's GDP in 2022.

Despite a brief ceasefire and prisoner exchanges in late 2023, negotiations have failed to achieve substantial progress. Egypt and Qatar continue mediating efforts for a long-term truce, but an agreement remains elusive.

The ongoing Gaza conflict is compounded by escalating tensions between Israel and various actors:

April 1: Israel's airstrike on Iran's consulate in Syria killed 13 people, including seven Iranian military advisers.

July 31: Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed in an Israeli airstrike in Tehran.

September 27: Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah died in an Israeli airstrike in Beirut.

October 5: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared a "seven-front war," targeting Hamas, West Bank militants, Hezbollah and other groups in Yemen, Iraq, Syria and Iran.

October 16: Hamas leader, Yahya Sinwar, was killed in combat during an Israeli military operation targeting the southern Gaza Strip, just two months after his appointment as the new head of Hamas' political bureau.

Israel's targeted assassinations have seemingly aimed to drag Iran, a key backer of non-state actors like Hamas and Hezbollah, into direct conflict. Tensions have escalated into direct exchanges:

April 13: Iran launched missiles and drones at Israeli targets in retaliation for attacks, including the April 1 strike on its consulate in Syria.

October 1: Iran fired around 200 missiles in response to the killings of Haniyeh and Nasrallah.

In addition to the Gaza and Israel-Iran conflicts, crises in the Red Sea and Sudan are destabilizing the region further, disrupting global supply chains and exacerbating inflation. Meanwhile, Sudan's ongoing civil war risks escalating into one of the world's largest hunger crises.

External powers and renewed geopolitical struggles

On November 26, Israel's Security Cabinet approved a ceasefire with Hezbollah, which took effect on November 27. On December 11, Israeli forces began withdrawing from southern Lebanon, offering a faint hope for peace.

However, neighboring Syria plunged into turmoil as opposition forces launched offensives across the country, capturing key cities like Aleppo and Damascus by December 8. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad fled to Russia, and Mohammed al-Bashir, Syria's new interim leader, said he would lead the interim authority until March 1.

The power vacuum in Syria disrupts the balance among global and regional powers, including the U.S., Russia, Turkey and Iran. Meanwhile, Israel's opportunistic strikes amid the turmoil have decimated over 80 percent of Syria's defense capabilities, adding to the country's fragile security situation.

Currently, the Syrian transitional government has signaled its willingness to engage with the international community on equal terms. However, achieving genuine domestic improvement remains a formidable challenge. As the "heart of the Middle East," Syria's strategic importance is undeniable, and external powers are unlikely to cease their maneuvers and competition within the country.

Meanwhile, economic fragility, deteriorating living conditions, soaring prices and energy shortages are pressing issues that the transitional government must urgently address. These challenges are not only critical for Syria's recovery but also pivotal to determining whether the broader Middle East can achieve peace and stability.

Dialogue and cooperation: a call for lasting peace

In the face of the worsening situation in the Middle East and the bleak prospects for peace, China, as a responsible major power, firmly believes that the future of the Middle East should rest in the hands of its nations.

China consistently supports the Middle Eastern people in independently exploring their own development paths and encourages regional countries to resolve disputes through dialogue and consultation.

January 1: Egypt, the UAE and Iran joined BRICS.

May 30: At the 10th Ministerial Meeting of the China-Arab States Cooperation Forum in Beijing, a joint statement on Palestine called for justice and peace.

July 21-23: High-level representatives from 14 Palestinian factions signed the Beijing Declaration on ending internal divisions and strengthening Palestinian unity.

Whether it is supporting the just cause of the Palestinian people in restoring their legitimate national rights, advocating tirelessly for peace in Gaza, providing humanitarian aid to conflict areas within its capacity or fulfilling regional peacekeeping responsibilities with dedication, China exemplifies the mission and responsibility of a major power.

As Wang Yi, member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and minister of foreign affairs, stated during a collective meeting with Arab ambassadors in Beijing on December 19, the Middle East belongs to the people of the Middle East.

The international community should respect the legitimate concerns, independent choices and historical and cultural traditions of countries in the region and support regional countries to live in harmony and achieve long-term peace and stability, he stressed.

Supervisor: Mu Li

Producers: Li Chao, Wang Xuejing

Reporter: Zhou Xuan