Middle East 2024: Sudan, a forgotten nation in unending war and suffering

This is a crisis of staggering scale and unimaginable brutality that demands urgent and sustained attention, said Edem Wosornu, director of operations at the UN Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), as she issued an urgent plea to the international community regarding the dire humanitarian crisis in Sudan while briefing ambassadors in the Security Council on December 19.

On April 15, 2023, civil war broke out in Sudan, with clashes erupting in the capital, Khartoum, between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The conflict quickly spread beyond the capital and continues unabated. Over a year of fighting has plunged Sudan into a state of complete disaster: violence, hunger, disease, death, and the destruction of the nation's landscape and people.

In October 2024, Ted Chaiban, assistant secretary-general of the United Nations and deputy executive director of UNICEF, visited Sudan, describing the crisis as one of the most severe in living memory. Yet, Sudan and its plight are becoming increasingly forgotten, he noted.

15 states engulfed in war

Over a year of conflict has left 15 of Sudan's 18 states embroiled in war, with only the northern and eastern states remaining untouched by direct fighting. According to the non-governmental Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED), as of mid-December, over 28,700 people have been killed.

The capital region, including Khartoum and its surrounding cities of North Khartoum and Omdurman, remains one of the primary battlefields. The warring factions maintain overlapping control, with 10 key bridges across the Nile River serving as strategic points of confrontation.

In the western Darfur region, the RSF holds a dominant position, controlling four of the five states, with only North Darfur still contested. Currently, the RSF is laying siege to the state capital, El Fasher, while the SAF mounts limited counterattacks.

Central Sudan's Gezira and Sennar states are critical grain-producing regions of significant strategic importance. Since December 2023, the RSF has successively taken control of these states, severely disrupting the SAF personnel and supply lines. This development has also expanded the conflict further into central and southern Sudan.

In October this year, the SAF launched a large-scale military operation, reclaiming most of Sennar state. Fierce battles are underway in eastern Gezira, with the SAF advancing steadily toward the state capital, Wad Madani. The control of this area could have a profound impact on the future trajectory of the conflict.

A fragmented nation

Militarily, the SAF and RSF appear evenly matched, turning the conflict into a prolonged war of attrition. The battle lines have become increasingly defined: the RSF dominates much of western Sudan, including Darfur and Kordofan, while the SAF maintains control over the eastern and northern regions. The conflict has effectively divided Sudan along a west-east axis, with Al Jazirah and Sennar as the dividing line.

In December of this year, the RSF announced an agreement with some Sudanese political figures to establish a so-called peace government to administer areas under RSF control. The RSF stated that the "peace government" would be led by civilian officials and operate independently of the RSF, with the intent to replace Sudan's current government. Prior to this, the RSF had already set up civil administration offices in the Darfur and Kordofan regions, as well as in the Gezira and Khartoum states, to manage governance in its controlled territories.

Also, the Sudanese government has initiated a currency exchange program in seven eastern states, replacing old banknotes with newly issued currency. The RSF has accused the move of harboring political motives, calling it a "first step toward dividing Sudan."

The crisis has also deepened societal divisions, with local militias and tribal factions aligning with either side. This has heightened ethnic tensions, leading to further political fragmentation. Sudan risks evolving into a nation with two armies, two currencies, and even two governments, raising the specter of national disintegration.

Stalled ceasefire talks

Despite multiple rounds of mediation by the UN, African Union, and regional stakeholders, ceasefire negotiations have yielded little success.

In May 2023, talks in Jeddah brokered by Saudi Arabia led to the signing of the Jeddah Declaration, in which both sides pledged to protect civilians and facilitate humanitarian efforts. However, subsequent ceasefire agreements were repeatedly violated. By December, mediators announced the indefinite suspension of talks in Jeddah.

Later rounds of indirect dialogue in Geneva also failed to produce any agreements. In August 2024, new talks began in Geneva under U.S.-Saudi mediation, with observers from the UN, the African Union, Egypt, and the UAE. While the RSF participated, the SAF refused, rendering the talks ineffective.

Recently, Sudan's Sovereign Council Chairman and Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan has repeatedly declared his refusal to negotiate or agree to a ceasefire with the RSF. He emphasized that the RSF has only two options: surrender to the SAF or face complete defeat.

Observers widely believe that both sides currently lack strong intentions for ceasefire negotiations. Instead, each aims to gain a military advantage before resuming talks, hoping to secure a more favorable position at the negotiating table. Furthermore, profound disagreements persist over critical issues, such as the integration of military forces and the distribution of power in Sudan's future political structure. Achieving a genuine ceasefire and meaningful negotiations seems unlikely until a decisive outcome is reached on the battlefield.

A humanitarian catastrophe

The ongoing conflict has created a severe humanitarian disaster. In October 2023, UN Secretary-General António Guterres described the crisis as a "nationwide humanitarian catastrophe," with civilians facing hunger, disease, displacement, and escalating ethnic violence.

●  Economic Devastation: Around 90 percent of Sudan's industrial facilities have been damaged, with the economy shrinking by 40 percent in 2023 and projected to contract further by 28 percent in 2024.

●  Displacement Crisis: Over 12 million people, a quarter of Sudan's population, have been displaced, with 3.25 million seeking refuge in neighboring countries like Chad and South Sudan.

●  Food Insecurity: Over 25.6 million people - more than half the population - are in severe food insecurity, with only five percent able to access a full daily meal. Acute malnutrition affects over 30 percent of children under five, the highest rate globally.

●  Healthcare Collapse: Over half of Sudan's hospitals are non-operational, leaving 20 million people without access to medical services. Diseases such as malaria, cholera, dengue fever, and measles are spreading rapidly.

●  Education Crisis: More than 10,000 schools have closed, leaving over 19 million children without access to formal education.

The International Rescue Committee (IRC) released a report on December 11, highlighting that approximately 30.4 million people in Sudan need humanitarian assistance, marking the largest humanitarian crisis in the country's history.

Despite Sudan accounting for less than one percent of the global population, the report notes that the number of people requiring humanitarian aid in the country represents 10 percent of the global total. This alarming situation underscores the profound impact of conflict and economic hardship on Sudanese citizens, calling for urgent international efforts to strengthen humanitarian assistance in the region.

"We are calling on the world to wake up and help Sudan out of the nightmare it is living through," WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus pleaded during a September 2024 visit.

Yet, as 2025 approaches, the conflict shows no signs of abating, leaving millions of Sudanese in despair. Their longed-for "spring of peace" remains heartbreakingly out of reach.

Supervisor: Mu Li

Producers: Li Chao, Wang Xuejing

Reporter: Zhao Yuanfang