Middle East Insights 2024: Lebanon, escalating conflicts, fragile ceasefire, and an uncertain future

As 2024 draws to a close, Beirut's Rafic Hariri International Airport is bustling with activity. With the gradual resumption of international flights, many Lebanese citizens are returning home for the New Year holiday to reunite with their families and welcome 2025.

The past year has been particularly challenging for the people of Lebanon. The Middle East remains fraught with instability, and the spillover of the Israel-Palestine conflict has led to a sharp escalation in hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. This culminated in over two months of intense fighting starting in September. Although a ceasefire agreement was reached through international mediation, the impact of the conflict lingers, leaving Lebanon's future riddled with challenges.

Spillover conflict: Escalation between Hezbollah and Israel

Since the outbreak of a new round of Israel-Palestine conflict on October 7, 2023, Hezbollah in Lebanon launched ongoing attacks on northern Israel in support of Hamas. In response, Israel targeted Hezbollah's military assets in southern Lebanon through airstrikes.

While the skirmishes initially remained concentrated near the Lebanon-Israel border, the situation escalated significantly on January 2, when a Hamas office in Beirut's southern suburbs was struck by a drone attack, resulting in the death of seven individuals, including the deputy chief of the movement Saleh al-Arouri. This marked the first attack on Lebanon's capital during the conflict.

The escalation continued with Israeli forces striking Baalbek in eastern Lebanon in February, expanding the conflict's geographical scope. By June, Israel announced it was prepared for large-scale military operations against Hezbollah due to its frequent attacks.

On September 17, multiple pager explosions rocked Beirut and other areas in southeastern and northeastern Lebanon, followed by communication device explosions the next day, causing dozens of deaths and more than 3,000 injuries. In response, Hezbollah launched a ballistic missile targeting the Mossad headquarters near Tel Aviv. The conflict between Lebanon and Israel reached unprecedented levels of intensity.

On September 23, Israel launched an intensified air campaign against Lebanon, named "Operation Northern Arrows." Within just one day, approximately 1,600 Hezbollah targets across Lebanon were struck, resulting in 558 deaths and 1,835 injuries.

A few days later, the Lebanon-Israel conflict reached another critical turning point. On September 27, Israeli forces targeted Hezbollah's headquarters in Beirut's southern suburbs. Hassan Nasrallah, the secretary-general of Hezbollah, was confirmed killed in the airstrike.

On October 1, the Israel Defense Forces announced that they had initiated limited ground operations within Lebanese territory, aiming at destroying Hezbollah's military infrastructure used for targeting Israel.

On October 18, following Israel's announcement of the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, Hezbollah declared a new phase of escalation "in the confrontation with the Israeli enemy."

The prolonged escalation caused significant casualties in Lebanon and displaced over 1.2 million people. According to the Lebanese Ministry of Health, this round of conflict resulted in 4,047 deaths and 16,638 injuries in Lebanon, with 3,402 fatalities occurring after September 15 alone.

Breaking the dawn: Ceasefire takes effect

As early as late September, a joint statement by 12 countries and organizations, including the United States and France, called for an immediate 21-day ceasefire along the Lebanon-Israel border to facilitate negotiations and resolve the conflict through diplomacy. A preliminary agreement was reached with Nasrallah supporting the proposal. However, the subsequent Israeli assassination of the Hezbollah leader extinguished the prospect of a ceasefire.

In November, despite ongoing diplomatic efforts, the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah escalated dramatically. Israeli air strikes blanketed Lebanon, ground clashes along the southern border intensified and Beirut endured heavy bombardments. In response, Hezbollah launched attacks on Israel's northern and central regions, including Tel Aviv.

Against this backdrop of mounting hostilities and growing skepticism about the prospects for peace, a breakthrough finally emerged. Israel's Security Cabinet approved the ceasefire agreement, which officially took effect at 4 a.m. local time on November 27, signaling a glimmer of hope for de-escalation.

The key provisions addressed critical points of contention and laid the groundwork for the truce:

● Hezbollah, or any Lebanese armed groups, will not to launch any offensive action against Israel.

● Israel will not carry out any offensive action against targets in Lebanon.

● Both sides reaffirm the significance of United Nations Resolution 1701.

● The Lebanese Armed Forces are designated as the sole authorized military entity permitted to operate in southern Lebanon.

● A jointly recognized oversight committee is established, involving the U.S., France and the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), to ensure compliance with the agreement.

● Both parties must report any violations of the agreement to the committee and UNIFIL.

● Israel is to withdraw from southern Lebanon within 60 days, while Hezbollah must retreat north of the Litani River, leaving the area under the control of the Lebanese Armed Forces and UNIFIL.

● Lebanon and Israel will engage in indirect negotiations to reach an internationally recognized land border.

Lebanon's caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati welcomed the ceasefire agreement on the day of announcement and the Lebanese Army began bolstering its deployment south of the Litani River. Hezbollah's new chief, Naim Qassem, confirmed the group's commitment to UN Resolution 1701 and pledged high-level coordination with the Lebanese Army to fulfill its obligations.

Uncertain future: A challenging road to reconstruction

Despite the significant de-escalation of the Lebanon-Israel conflict, Lebanon still faces many challenges ahead.

There have been occasional violations of the agreement. Israel has launched multiple attacks on towns in southern Lebanon, and Hezbollah has also fired shells at Israeli forces in response. Israeli Defense Minister Katz has even issued a stronger statement, warning that if the ceasefire breaks down, Israel will respond with maximum force and zero tolerance, no longer distinguishing between Lebanon and Hezbollah.

Currently, despite both Hezbollah and Israel accusing each other of violations, both sides have committed to upholding the ceasefire. Analysts believe that UN Resolution 1701 provides a legal basis, and the involvement of a multi-national monitoring mechanism helps keep the situation largely under control. While the agreement is expected to hold, the situation after the 60-day period remains uncertain.

Secondly, Lebanon faces years of political turmoil. Since September 29, 2022, the Lebanese parliament has failed to elect a new president following Michel Aoun's term, which ended on October 31, 2022, leaving the position vacant for over two years.

After the truce announcement, Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri stated on November 28 that a presidential election would be held on January 9, 2025. Whether Lebanon's internal factions can reach a consensus and elect a president will be crucial for the country's future governance.

Third, Lebanon faces ongoing economic struggles. Even before the conflict, Lebanon was already dealing with a severe economic crisis — its economy had not fully recovered from the Beirut port explosion, the currency had depreciated significantly, energy shortages persisted and basic living conditions were difficult.

The latest Israel-Hezbollah conflict has further devastated Lebanon's economy. The damage from bombings alone resulted in $2.8 billion in property losses, and widespread displacement has worsened the living conditions, leading to declining consumption. Key industries such as tourism, agriculture, manufacturing and trade have been severely impacted by the conflict.

According to the World Bank's Lebanon Economic Monitor released on December 10, the country's real GDP growth has been cut by an estimated 6.6 percent in 2024, bringing its cumulative decline since 2019 to over 38 percent. The United Nations Development Programme forecasts Lebanon's unemployment rate may rise to a staggering 32.6 percent by the end of 2024.

The combination of economic struggles and the high cost of post-conflict reconstruction presents Lebanon with significant macroeconomic challenges.

On the day the ceasefire agreement took effect, several locals were interviewed on the streets of Beirut by China Media Group. After more than a year of conflict, with the ceasefire finally in place, their responses were filled with mixed emotions. There was joy over the truce, anger at the war, concern about the situation and hope for the future.

Many expressed that, despite the hardships endured, they hoped this ceasefire would lead to true peace and that Lebanon could have a better future.

Supervisor: Mu Li

Producer: Li Chao, Wang Xuejing

Reporter: Wang Xuejing