World sizzles as 2024 shatters temperature records: Are we at the threshold of 1.5?

Global average temperatures surged to unprecedented levels in 2024, accompanied by a dramatic increase in extreme weather events. In 2015, the Paris Agreement set a goal of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. The question now is: can we still meet this target?

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reports that the period from 2015 to 2024 has been the hottest decade on record.

This year, the Philippines recorded temperatures of 50 degrees Celsius before May, forcing thousands of schools to shut down. In June, Mexico matched its all-time high of 52 degrees Celsius, and Egypt set a national record of 50.9 degrees Celsius. Other nations, including Chad, Ghana, and Laos, also experienced unprecedented heat levels.

On July 22, data from the EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) revealed that the global average surface air temperature reached 17.15 degrees Celsius, marking the hottest single day in recorded history.

The impact of extreme weather

Global warming has intensified the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, causing devastating consequences worldwide. In 2024, floods, droughts and wildfires became alarmingly common.

From Kathmandu to Dubai and Southern Appalachia, destructive floods displaced millions. 

In April, Guangzhou City in south China's Guangdong Province, experienced severe storms with tornadoes and hail, resulting in five deaths and 33 injuries. Meanwhile, the Amazon rainforest and Pantanal Wetland faced severe droughts and wildfires, leading to significant biodiversity loss.

"Our climate is collapsing, and the signs have never been clearer," stated United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres. He warned that climate disasters are becoming more frequent, taking a toll on lives, livelihoods and economic stability.

The World Weather Attribution report found that climate change directly contributed to the deaths of at least 3,700 people and displaced millions across 26 major weather events in 2024.

Causes behind the crisis

"Human activity remains the primary driver of global warming," said Zhou Bing, chief expert of meteorological services at China Meteorological Administration. 

He emphasized that activities like transportation, housing and consumption contribute significantly to carbon emissions, accounting for about 15-20 percent of overall living emissions.

The global carbon budget report shows that 2024 witnessed a record-high of 41.6 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions, primarily from the burning of fossil fuels. Deforestation and forest fires further exacerbate the problem.

On December 10, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released the 2024 Arctic Annual Report, showing that the release of carbon dioxide from the tundra in the Arctic has exceeded the amount stored, turning it into a net source of carbon dioxide emissions, which will further exacerbate the impact on the climate.

"The other cause of the frequent occurrence of extreme weather around the world is the El Nino and La Nina events in the equatorial east-central Pacific," Zhou Bing added.

El Nino involves abnormally warm sea surface temperatures in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific, while La Nina represents the opposite - abnormally cool temperatures. Both phenomena disrupt atmospheric circulation, leading to significant climate effects worldwide.

What lies ahead

The UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts that global temperatures will continue to rise over the next decade, potentially exceeding the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold.

"Climate disasters are harming health, exacerbating inequality and undermining peace," warned Guterres at the COP29 climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan.

Experts caution that continued warming, combined with events like La Nina, could bring unpredictable and severe consequences.

The meaning of the 1.5°C threshold

C3S data confirms that 2024 has been the hottest year on record, with global temperatures surpassing the critical 1.5 threshold above pre-industrial levels. However, WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo clarified that temporary temperature spikes above 1.5 degrees Celsius do not signify the failure of the Paris Agreement.

"Even small increases in warming significantly amplify the risks of extreme weather events and their impacts," Saulo explained.