Analysts say resolution hard to find in South Korea's political crisis

South Korea's political crisis has deepened after impeached President Yoon Suk-yeol resisted arrest over a failed martial law decree on Friday, with analysts suggesting that finding a resolution to the current impasse won't be easy.

David Tizzard, an assistant professor of Korean studies at Seoul Women's University, told CGTN that the current turmoil is rooted not just in legal or political disputes but also in the physical spaces where these clashes are unfolding. "We have the politics of space coming back to real life," Tizzard noted, highlighting how supporters and opponents of Yoon, along with investigative bodies and law enforcement, have taken to the streets in an effort to assert their presence. 

This phenomenon contrasts with the increasing tendency for political discourse to occur online, bringing a tangible and immediate dimension to the crisis, he said.

South Korea's unprecedented political turmoil follows a week of escalating tensions that began with Yoon's declaration of martial law on December 3. The decree led to widespread condemnation and protests, culminating in the National Assembly's impeachment of Yoon on December 14. The impeachment suspended Yoon from office, leaving the country in a state of political limbo as the Constitutional Court deliberates on the matter. Meanwhile, Yoon's resistance to arrest on charges of insurrection – linked to his alleged authorization of force to block legislative votes – has further intensified public outrage and street demonstrations.

On Friday, anti-corruption investigators attempted to arrest President Yoon at his official residence, but they were met with resistance from Yoon's security detail and supporters, resulting in a six-hour standoff. The investigators eventually retreated due to safety concerns.

Adding to the gravity of the situation, Tizzard pointed out that the political unrest coincides with a national mourning period for victims of a recent airplane crash. Political leaders "are meant to inspire the population and lead us forward with messages of hope, and yet we see such division," he said.

South Korea has historically prided itself on its pragmatism and resilience, Tizzard noted, but the current deadlock between political and legislative institutions poses an unprecedented challenge. "It's really almost impossible to see how things move forward," he said. 

While legal mechanisms are in play, Tizzard underscored the critical role of public sentiment in shaping the country's political landscape. "It's a populist country. We need to see what's happened with the people. Will they still be there on Monday? Will they return back to work?" he asked, noting the fast-paced nature of South Korean society and the potential for rapid developments in the coming days.

Einar Tangen, a senior fellow at the Taihe Institute, offered a stark assessment of Yoon's strategy in the face of mounting legal and public opposition. "Delay, delay, delay. I think he is hoping that somehow public opinion will come over to his side. It is highly doubtful," Tangen told CGTN.

While Yoon enjoys strong support among older South Koreans, Tangen pointed out that younger generations and the majority of the population, as reflected in polls, do not share this sentiment.

The charges against Yoon are severe, Tangen explained, citing a 10-point indictment from the anti-graft body, the Corruption Investigation Office for High-ranking Officials, that accuses him of authorizing force to remove legislators from parliament to prevent a vote against his martial law declaration. "That does not sound like a legal way of doing things," Tangen remarked, suggesting that overcoming these allegations will be a significant challenge for the president.

Despite the political upheaval, Tangen noted that South Korea's powerful corporate conglomerates, or "chaebols," are unlikely to be significantly affected. "This may be dismissed as another incident in South Korean history, obviously not something to be proud of, but it's not going to affect the large chaebols," he said, adding that companies like Samsung, which plan years in advance, are expected to weather the crisis without major disruptions.