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U.S. President-elect Donald Trump speaks to members of the media during a press conference at the Mar-a-Lago Club in Palm Beach, Florida, U.S., January 7, 2025. /CFP
After a 15-month devastating fighting, Israel and Hamas agreed to a three-phase ceasefire-for-hostage deal mediated by Qatar, Egypt, and the United States on January 15.
In his farewell address from the Oval Office on the same day, U.S. President Joe Biden announced the agreement, claimed the credit, and said President-elect Donald Trump's team will be responsible for ensuring its implementation.
How could the incoming Trump administration shape the outcome of the deal and the Palestine-Israel conflict at large? Can his first term offer some clues?
Biden and Trump both claim credit
According to the Gaza ceasefire agreement, in the first stage of 42 days, there will be a ceasefire, and the withdrawal and redeployment of Israeli forces outside densely populated areas in Gaza.
Hamas will also release 33 hostages in exchange for Israel's release of Palestinian prisoners by the end of the first phase. Further details of the subsequent phases are to be announced after the first phase is implemented.
In a statement announcing the ceasefire, Biden said it mirrored the "precise contours" of a proposal he had made on May 31, 2024, and praised "dogged and painstaking" American diplomacy. "My diplomacy never ceased in their efforts to get this done."
He went further in his farewell address on Wednesday evening, saying "This plan was developed and negotiated by my team and will be largely implemented by the incoming administration," Biden added.
When a reporter asked who would be credited in history for the ceasefire deal that had been in the making for months, him or Trump, Biden smiled and responded, "Is that a joke?"
Trump, however, wasted little time in taking his share of credit. "This EPIC ceasefire agreement could have only happened as a result of our Historic Victory in November, as it signaled to the entire World that my Administration would seek Peace and negotiate deals to ensure the safety of all Americans, and our Allies," he said in a post on his social media platform, Truth Social, referring to his win of the U.S. presidential election.
Trump's team also claimed that the Biden administration had been unable to secure a lasting ceasefire in Gaza until Trump and his newly appointed Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, stepped in and joined the negotiations in Doha.
A weekend meeting between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Witkoff led to the breakthrough in the stalled negotiations, with Witkoff "doing more" to sway Netanyahu "in a single sit-down than outgoing President Joe Biden did all year," two Arab officials told The Times of Israel on Tuesday.
Wang Jin, assistant director of the Institute of Middle East Studies at Northwest University of China, said the agreement's conclusion is closely tied to Trump's taking office.
Because the first phase of the agreement will take effect on Sunday, the eve of Trump's inauguration as the 47th U.S. president, Wang told CGTN.
During the final stages of the talks, the U.S. side dispatched two envoys, of the outgoing Biden administration and the incoming Trump administration, to pressure all parties involved, a rare occurrence in American history, he noted.
The U.S. exerted significant pressure, which was a crucial external factor for all parties, including Israel and Hamas, in making their decisions, analyzed Wang.
The rubble of a collapsed building at a camp for people displaced by conflict in Bureij in the central Gaza Strip, January 17, 2025. /CFP
One-sided pro-Israel policy from Trump 1.0
Since Israel launched a large-scale offensive against Hamas in Gaza in response to the group's sudden attack on the southern Israeli border on October 7, 2023, more than 46,000 Palestinians have been killed, about 55 percent estimated to be women, children and elderly.
Observers believe that Trump's one-sided support for Israel during his first term in office from 2017 to 2021 had emboldened Israel's strong political, economic and security pressures on Palestinian factions. This exacerbated a growing unease and wariness, which fueled the provocative actions of Hamas, an advocate for armed resistance against Israel.
Despite strong opposition from Palestine, Trump announced on January 28, 2020 the "Deal of the Century," a controversial Middle East peace plan aimed at resolving the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. The plan included recognizing Jerusalem as the "undivided capital" of Israel and acknowledging Israeli sovereignty over Jewish settlements in the West Bank. He moved the U.S. embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem in May 2018.
The political framework of the "Deal of the Century" is central to resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict since it involves Washington's positions on border delineation, Jewish settlement, the status of Jerusalem, refugees, and future security arrangements between the two sides, Liu Zhongmin, a professor at Middle East Studies Institute of Shanghai International Studies University, wrote in a recent op-ed for a local media outlet.
"It is entirely a product of the United States' logic of zero-sum mindset, unilateralism and power politics," Liu said.
The deal, unilaterally introduced by Trump in his first term, was a significant deviation from the principles of international law, the spirit of United Nations resolutions, and the historical basis of Israeli-Palestinian negotiations, he said.
By imposing such a deal on Palestinians, the Trump administration had paved the way for the latest round of Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Additionally, Trump recognized Israeli sovereignty over the occupied Syrian territory of the Golan Heights. Under the Abraham Accords, he also facilitated the normalization of relations between Israel and four Arab countries: the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco in 2020.
What to expect from Trump 2.0?
President-elect Donald Trump's personnel picks for his Middle East team could offer some clues to his approach to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and the broader Middle East peace process, and may signal his strategy.
Witkoff, a New York real estate investor and campaign donor, has been appointed Trump's special envoy to the Middle East. Witkoff, who is Jewish, was seen as a bridge between Trump and the Jewish business community during the campaign.
Trump's nomination of former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee as the U.S. ambassador to Israel is particularly telling. Huckabee, a staunch supporter of Israel, advocates for Jewish settlements in the West Bank and has made controversial statements, such as his 2008 claim that "there's really no such thing as a Palestinian."
In his recent Truth Social post at the news of the Gaza deal, Trump also said his national security team will leverage the momentum of the ceasefire to further advance the Abraham Accords.
The foreseeable U.S. bias towards Israel, and Trump's determination to advance the "Deal of the Century" and the Abraham Accords in his second term, coupled with the inherent flaws in the ceasefire pact, will place Palestine in an even more disadvantageous position, said Liu.
Wang, the Middle East researcher at Northwest University of China, held the same view.
Through a new alliance framework, where Washington rebuilds relations among Middle East countries, especially by fostering diplomatic ties between Arab nationals and Israel, the upcoming Trump administration hopes to reshape a new U.S.-dominated security and political landscape with broad participation from its allies in the Middle East, Wang told CGTN.
He said, given Trump's track record, his administration will likely pursue a more radical or controversial policy, like attempting to address the Palestinian political issue through economic compensation.
Like in his first term, Trump has made it clear in the "Deal of the Century" to push Palestinians to relinquish large areas of land through leverages of economic aid and reconstruction efforts, funded by Gulf Arab countries led by Saudi Arabia, Wang explained.
However, this approach neither aligns with the international community's broad expectations for the Palestinian issue, nor does it respect the sentiments of the Palestinian people, he said.
Wang added, the prevailing expectation in the international community is to resolve the Palestine-Israel conflict through a two-state solution, recognizing the Palestinian people's right to an independent state, while gradually promoting wider recognition of Palestine's political status.