Trump's testing ground for his new Monroe Doctrine

Editor's note: Yuan Sha, a special commentator on current affairs for CGTN, is the deputy director at the Department for Global Governance and International Organizations Studies, China Institute of International Studies. The article reflects the author's views and not necessarily those of CGTN.

Since returning to the White House, U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened to "take back" the Panama Canal, alleging – falsely – that it is operated by China. The outlandish threat actually reveals Trump's hidden agenda to resurrect the infamous Monroe Doctrine, articulated in 1823 to curb Europe's expansion and promote America's commercial and security interests, as a pathway to achieve the "Golden Age of America."

As the new U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio begins his first official trip abroad to Central America, including a stop in Panama, there is worldwide concern about Trump's end goal, what coercive tactics he might use, and whether he would succeed in bullying the region into giving him what he wants. These questions are critical in assessing the nature of Trump 2.0 foreign policy and its challenges to the international order.

Trump's outlandish claims

The Panama Canal is a key strategic waterway in Central America linking the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. Up to 14,000 ships pass through the canal each year, accounting for around five percent of global maritime trade.

The U.S. used to control the canal from the early 20th century until the end of 1999, after which it handed over control of the canal to the Panama government in accordance with the treaties signed between the Carter administration and Panama in the 1970s. But now, eying the geostrategic importance of the canal, Trump wants to renege on the agreements and regain U.S. control of the canal. 

To justify this, he has lambasted the canal being "foolishly given to Panama," accusing Panama of charging U.S. ships "exorbitant" fees to use the waterway. He is also falsely claiming that China is "operating the canal," and cites national security as the necessity for an American takeover.

Trump's assertion to "take back" the Panama Canal is effectively an infringement on Panama's sovereignty and goes against international law. Panama has owned and administered the canal since 1999. Panamanian President Jose Raul Mulino has rejected Trump's claim as "nonsense," saying the canal "was not a gift" from the U.S.

Trump's claim about China is also outright disinformation. China undoubtedly is the second largest user of the canal, following the U.S., and a major investor in infrastructure in Panama as Panama is the first Latin American country to join the Belt and Road Initiative. But as the Panama government and China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs have clarified, China does not participate in the management and operation of the canal and has never interfered in its affairs.

Trump's outlandish claims actually reflect his heightened concern over China's growing investment in Panama. As the Trump 2.0 administration is ready to escalate the "great power competition" with China around the globe, the Panama Canal, not surprisingly, has become a new flashpoint.

What could Trump do?

The question is how serious Trump's bombastic rhetoric to regain control of the canal is and what he might do to achieve that end.

Trump has hinted at taking it back by force. He could cite the 1977 Neutrality Treaty with Panama which stipulates that the U.S. shall remain permanently neutral, but it reserves the right to defend any threat to the canal's neutrality by using military force. This outright threat to use military force is regarded as bluff to exact concessions from Panama.

Trump is also likely to use tariffs as a coercive tool. He might repeat the successful maneuver in pressuring Colombia to accept the flights carrying Colombians deported from the U.S. by threatening to impose 25 percent tariff. Trump's goal is to force the Panama government to curb its engagements with China as well as regain U.S. control over Panama.

Trump has the support of the Republican-controlled Congress. Republican senators recently introduced a resolution, calling on the government of Panama to cut its political and economic ties with China and Chinese businesses. Republican representatives have also introduced a bill in the House to authorize the president to enter into negotiations to acquire the canal from Panama. These legislative moves will further empower Trump's brazen actions on this matter.

Trump's new Monroe Doctrine

Trump's bullying rhetoric on Panama has sent shockwaves across the world, revealing the administration's penchant to revive the Monroe Doctrine which once provided the pretext for prolonged U.S. military, diplomatic and economic interventions.

In fact, Trump wanted to resuscitate the doctrine in his first administration itself. In September 2018, he declared in the United Nations General Assembly, "It has been the formal policy of our country since President Monroe that we reject the interference of foreign nations in this hemisphere and in our own affairs." He also expressed his admiration for President Theodore Roosevelt, who seized the Panama Canal and added the famous "Roosevelt Corollary" to the Monroe Doctrine, stating that the U.S. had the right to intervene in Latin American domestic affairs.

The Trump 2.0 administration seems to be all out to revive this doctrine, along with the bluster to force Denmark to sell Greenland to the U.S., make Canada the 51st state of the U.S., and change the name of the Gulf of Mexico to the "Gulf of America." Trump has also made startling proclamations in his inaugural address such as the U.S. needs to "expand our territory" and "carry our flag into new and beautiful horizons." He has made no secret of his intention to reinstate U.S. control over the Western Hemisphere.

However, the Monroe Doctrine is dead and anachronistic and Trump's bullying has already triggered pushbacks. Panama has made a formal complaint to the United Nations, emphasizing that the UN Charter precludes "the threat or use of force" against territorial integrity. Denmark, Canada and Mexico have also rejected Trump's outrageous claims.

But it is disconcerting that with a unified Congress, a loyal cabinet and the strong Make America Great Again movement, as well as the obsession with competition with China, Trump might face little constraint in practicing an expansionist foreign policy agenda. This is bound to cause more tensions in the region and beyond, eventually disrupting the international order.

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