Climate change is weakening extreme cold events, study finds

Human-induced climate change is making extreme cold events less severe, according to a new joint study by Chinese and U.S. researchers. While intense cold waves still occur, their intensity and frequency have significantly decreased due to global warming – challenging the common perception that climate change paradoxically leads to harsher winters. 

The study, published in npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, was conducted by researchers from the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) at the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences and the University at Albany - State University of New York.

The research examined the severe cold wave that hit eastern China in December 2023. It found that unusual large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns were the primary drivers of the event, accounting for 83 percent of its intensity. Meanwhile, the warming effect of climate change lessened its severity by up to 22 percent.

"Our findings confirm that human-induced climate change is actually weakening extreme cold events," said Qian Cheng, a professor at the IAP.

The study reveals that anthropogenic warming has reduced the likelihood and intensity of cold waves similar to the 2023 event by more than 92 percent and 1.9 degrees Celsius, respectively, compared to a world without human influence. Such events are projected to become even rarer and milder by the end of the century, with frequency decreasing by 95 percent and intensity dropping by more than 2 degrees Celsius under an intermediate-emissions scenario.

However, the study also noted that extreme cold events will not disappear entirely.

"If carbon neutrality is achieved and global warming stabilizes at 1.5 degrees Celsius, we could still see cold extremes similar to those today," Qian said. "That means societies must remain prepared for sudden cold snaps, even if the 1.5-degree target of the Paris Agreement is met."

The findings underscore the need for adaptive strategies to mitigate the impacts of extreme cold events, Qian added.

(With input from Xinhua)