China's confidence in steady economic growth for 2025: Key factors

Editor's note: China will hold its annual Two Sessions in early March. Ahead of this year's key political meetings, CGTN presents a special series that takes an in-depth look at the country's endeavors in promoting people's livelihood, economic development, sci-tech innovation and opening up.

China is set to enter the Two Sessions period in early March, with the world waiting for the Chinese government to reveal its annual growth target and corresponding policies amid a sluggish global economic recovery and rising protectionism.

Chinese President Xi Jinping on Monday attended a symposium on private enterprises, calling on representatives of private entrepreneurs to strengthen the determination of development and firming up confidence to promote the healthy and high-quality development.

He stressed that China will further deepen opening up in all aspects, highlighting the immense potential of the country's 1.4 billion-strong mega-market, which will bring broad prospects for the private economy's development.

Official data showed that China's gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 5 percent year on year in 2024, meeting the annual target. The world's second-largest economy's GDP reached 130 trillion yuan ($17.8 trillion) for the first time, reinforcing its position as one of the fastest-growing major economies in the world.

Michael Borchmann, former head of the European and International Affairs Department of the federal German state of Hesse, pointed out that amid current challenges facing the global economy, it is rare for an economy like China's, which is already in a stage of high-quality development, to sustain such results.

"This not only shows that the Chinese economy is extremely resilient and adaptable, but also reflects the steady expansion of domestic demand and the results of industrial transformation," he said.

German newspaper Handelsblatt highlighted encouraging data on the Chinese economy, noting that China's value-added industrial output went up by 6.1 percent year on year in 2024 and the production and supply of electricity, thermal power, gas and water increased by 5.3 percent in the same period.

In 2024, the value-added output of the equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors rose at a faster pace than average industrial production, rising by 7.7 percent and 8.9 percent, respectively, the newspaper pointed out. Notably, high-technology sectors including new energy vehicles, industrial robots and integrated circuit products – critical to China's economic strategy – all achieved significant growth.

Jacqueline Rong, chief China economist at BNP Paribas, said the biggest bright spot in the Chinese economy last year was exports.

According to data from the General Administration of Customs in mid-January 2025, China's foreign trade in 2024 reached 43.85 trillion yuan (about $6.1 trillion), up by 5 percent year on year. Exports grew by 7.1 percent year on year to 25.45 trillion yuan last year, while imports expanded by 2.3 percent from one year earlier to 18.39 trillion yuan, the data showed.

Bloomberg noted that some provincial-level regions in China have recently set more optimistic economic growth targets, with five saying they will grow at or above 5 percent in 2025. Among them, Beijing, Shanghai and Guangdong have announced growth targets of "around 5 percent," while Zhejiang is aiming for "around 5.5 percent" and Fujian for "5 to 5.5 percent."

These targets were announced at provincial-level Two Sessions – the annual meetings of provincial legislative and political advisory bodies – which generally take place before the national Two Sessions and provide clues about the prospects of the national economy in the final year of the country's 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025).

Commenting on China's achievement of 5-percent economic growth in 2024, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) described it as a surprise for the global economy. Both the IMF and the World Bank have recently raised their forecasts for China's economic growth in 2025, reflecting their optimism about its economic outlook.

Since last September, China has unveiled a series of measures to boost the economy. These include cuts in the market-based benchmark lending rates and banks' reserve requirement ratios, as well as a package of 10 trillion yuan in new fiscal funding to address local government debt risks. A trade-in program for consumer goods, such as appliances and automobiles, was expanded to revive consumption.

Bloomberg said these measures have helped China invigorate consumer growth. In the fourth quarter, the total retail sales of consumer goods in China went up by 3.8 percent year on year, one of the fastest quarterly growth rates of the year, it noted.

Consumption has been a key driver of China's economic growth in recent years. Last December's annual Central Economic Work Conference outlined nine economic priorities for 2025, with the top one being "vigorously boosting consumption, improving investment efficiency, and expanding domestic market demand on all fronts."

Boosted by the country's visa-free policies and various incentives, strong growth in the cultural and tourism sectors is also expected in 2025. The ongoing winter tourism boom and the Spring Festival holiday have secured a good start to the year for the sectors.

According to the National Immigration Administration, China recorded 14.37 million cross-border trips during the Spring Festival holiday season, a 6.3-percent increase from a year earlier. About one million of these trips were made by foreign nationals, a 22.9-percent year-on-year increase.

Over the holiday period, sales of key retail and catering enterprises in China increased by 4.1 percent year on year, data released by the Ministry of Commerce shows.

The 2025 Spring Festival holiday has marked a new milestone for China's thriving film industry, with box office revenue soaring to an unprecedented 9.51 billion yuan (over $1.3 billion) between January 28 and February 4, according to the China Film Administration.