U.S.-Russia talks on Ukraine crisis omit key players: Ukraine and Europe

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio arrived in Riyadh on Monday, with reports indicating that he will begin talks with Russian officials on the Ukraine crisis there on Tuesday, excluding key players in the conflict: Ukraine and Europe.

In addition to Rubio, U.S. Middle East Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and National Security Advisor Mike Waltz are expected to attend the talks. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Russian Presidential Assistant Yuri Ushakov will represent Russia in the negotiations.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced on Monday that Ukraine will not participate in the U.S.-Russia talks and will not accept any outcome that excludes Ukraine.

Currently in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Zelenskyy is set to visit Saudi Arabia soon. He clarified that his visit to Saudi Arabia on Tuesday "has no connection" to the U.S.-Russia talks, focusing instead on discussions to lower oil prices with Saudi Arabia. However, he noted that he would use the opportunity to learn about the progress of the U.S.-Russia negotiations through Saudi officials.

Concerned about being sidelined in the negotiations, Europe leaders have taken action.

French President Emmanuel Macron convened an emergency meeting in Paris on Monday, bringing together leaders from NATO, the European Commission, and key European countries, including France, Germany, Britain, Poland, Spain, Italy, Denmark, and the Netherlands, to coordinate a unified European response ahead of the Russian-U.S. talks.

Chen Yu, deputy director of the Eurasian Institute at the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, told CMG that Europe considers Ukraine as a core interest. He noted that Europeans are worried that the current U.S.-Russia approach, bypassing Europe, could undermine European interests and lead to a peace solution that sacrifices concerns of Ukraine and Europe. Additionally, Europe fears this could result in further expansion of Russian influence in the West.

After the meeting, Macron spoke with U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Zelenskyy. He later tweeted that Europe seeks a "strong and lasting peace" for Ukraine, one that includes "strong and credible security guarantees" for the Ukrainian people.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz also reiterated Germany's ongoing support for Ukraine, rejecting the notion that Ukraine should accept "everything that is presented to it under any conditions." He emphasized the importance of unity between U.S. and European allies in safeguarding European security. "There must be no division of security and responsibility between Europe and the United States," Scholz stated. "NATO is based on the principle of always acting together and sharing the risks. This must not be called into question."

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, speaking outside the Ukraine summit in Paris, called the future of Ukraine an "existential" issue for Europe. He suggested that Britain may consider deploying forces to Ukraine if a lasting peace agreement is reached.

However, Chancellor Scholz dismissed the idea of European countries sending ground troops to Ukraine, calling it "totally premature." He did confirm that European nations are prepared to allocate "at least two percent" of their GDP to strengthen Europe's defense.

Chen explained that Europe is pushing to play a more prominent role in resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict amid ongoing U.S.-Russia negotiations. However, there are significant divisions within Europe regarding security guarantees for Ukraine and the potential for troop deployment after a ceasefire.

He pointed out that any realistic peace settlement would likely address Ukraine's security concerns, which are central to the country's interests. If such a solution requires Europe to take on more responsibilities, Europe may be willing to do so, including engaging in discussions about troop deployment. However, he cautioned that the situation remains complex, with substantial differences in positions, requiring ongoing observation of how events unfold.