Ukraine peace talks: A long road ahead

Editor's note: Nikola Mikovic, a special commentator on current affairs for CGTN, is a freelance journalist in Serbia, covering mostly Russian, Ukrainian and Belarusian foreign policy issues. The article reflects the author's opinions, and not necessarily those of CGTN.

Almost 2,500 years ago, the ancient Chinese military strategist Sun Tzu wrote in his book The Art of War that "there is no instance of a nation benefiting from prolonged warfare." Both Russia and Ukraine are undoubtedly exhausted by the conflict that erupted on February 24, 2022. But is it likely that the two countries will reach a peace deal in the near future?

Months before winning the U.S. presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump promised to end the Ukraine conflict "even before he took the Oval Office." That, however, did not happen. Starting a war has always been much easier than ending it.

Still, what Donald Trump managed to do over the past month was initiate the process of normalizing relations between the United States and Russia. His phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin on February 12 – the day marking the 10th anniversary of the Minsk II agreement, which effectively froze the Donbas war that broke out in the spring of 2014 – was the first step in that direction.

What followed was the summit between U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Riyadh on February 18. Although no document has been signed, the two officials agreed to continue holding talks and to appoint ambassadors to each other's capitals as soon as possible.

In the meantime, the Trump administration launched a campaign against Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, accusing him of corruption, blaming him for Russia's actions in Ukraine and even going so far as to call him a "dictator." This rhetoric came after Zelensky refused to reach a deal with Washington over Ukraine's rare earth minerals.

Most, if not all, relevant political figures in Kyiv want the United States to provide "security guarantees" in exchange for rare metals and critical materials. Conversely, Washington seems to view Europe as a major provider of Ukraine's security. Trump reportedly aims to end, or at least freeze, the conflict in Ukraine so that the United States can focus on other geopolitical issues, whether it be the situation in the Middle East or, perhaps, China.

Some Russian analysts have already warned that Washington, in the long run, plans to turn Russia against China, which is why Trump reportedly aims to make some concessions to Putin regarding Ukraine. In their view, Moscow could eventually play the role of an American instrument against Beijing, in the same way that the West now uses Kyiv as a tool against Russia. Even Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko recently stated that the U.S. could try to "pit the Russians against the Chinese", emphasizing that "the Russians must not allow that."

Even if Washington does have such plans, realizing them will not be an easy task. Unlike in Ukraine, where significant parts of the population – especially in the country's western regions – historically harbor negative views of Moscow, in Russia there is no anti-Chinese sentiment. According to a survey conducted by the All-Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VTsIOM), 72 percent of Russians see the relationship between Russia and China as friendly and neighborly.

In Ukraine, on the other hand, according to a Gallup opinion poll from December 2024, half of the population wants a quick, negotiated end to the war with Russia. However, key issues, such as territorial integrity and Ukraine's NATO membership, remain major points of contention. The vast majority of Ukraine's citizens oppose the idea of Kyiv giving up territory that is currently under Russia's control. Thus, it will be very difficult for Trump to force Zelensky, or a future Ukrainian leader, to recognize Moscow's incorporation of Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions into the Russian Federation.

Fully aware of this, the U.S. President likely seeks to freeze the conflict, rather than to end it. Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukraine's GUR military intelligence agency, recently stressed that a ceasefire in the war with Russia could happen this year.

"How long it will last, how effective it will be – that is another question," Budanov added.

In other words, it is entirely possible that Moscow and Kyiv will soon reach a Minsk-style ceasefire deal that will put the conflict in Ukraine "on hold," although low-scale positional warfare will continue. More importantly, despite talks between Russian and American officials, hostilities in Ukraine will go on, as both sides seek to achieve some tactical goals.

One thing is for sure: heavy battles on the ground will continue until the last day of negotiations and the signing of a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine. Meanwhile, Moscow and Washington will almost certainly persist in attempting to normalize their bilateral ties and discuss Ukraine's future without Kyiv's participation in their talks. However, counting their chickens before they hatch could be a mistake.

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