Behind US-Ukraine minerals deal: US 'America First' agenda and resource control bid

Editor's note: Liu Xu is the deputy director of the Institute for Russian, East European and Central Asian Studies at the School of International Studies of Renmin University of China. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN. It has been translated from Chinese and edited for brevity and clarity.

The meeting between the leaders of the US and Ukraine ended in an unexpected way. Although the two countries did not sign a mineral deal, they left the door open for further negotiations. The mineral deal is a key issue in US efforts to mediate a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, reflecting a major shift in US foreign policy toward Ukraine and its strategic intent to prioritize resource control and its economic interests. With active responses from the European Union and Russia, the mineral deal could potentially evolve from a bilateral US-Ukraine deal into bilateral or even multilateral agreements involving multiple other countries.

The US-Ukraine mineral deal embodies the "America First" agenda and the "Make America Great Again" (MAGA) strategic objectives. The recent policies toward Ukraine under the Trump administration suggests that the US views the Russia-Ukraine conflict as a bilateral issue unrelated to the US, and that the US should withdraw while recovering its previous expenditures, namely, the various military and economic aid provided to Ukraine over the past three years under the Biden administration. For Ukraine, still mired in war, struggling to rebuild, and reliant on foreign aid, its underground resources represent the only viable means of repaying its debts. The products derived from the extraction and processing of these resources are classified as bulk commodities with inelastic demand and could generate a stable revenue stream. By targeting Ukraine's underground resources, the US seeks not only to obtain a steady financial return from Ukraine but also to gain de facto control over its scarce resources.

Ukraine is a resource-rich nation that abounds in "critical minerals." These critical minerals are essential raw materials for advanced manufacturing sectors, including semiconductors, electric vehicles, battery production, wind power, and photovoltaic equipment. The ability to control the extraction and processing of these minerals plays a decisive role in shaping a country's position in the global economic landscape. The US is 100 percent net import reliant for 12 of the 50 critical minerals identified by the US Geological Survey (USGS) and more than 50 percent net import reliant for an additional 29. This heavy dependence poses a daunting challenge to the US global standing and its MAGA ambition. Since Trump's first term, the US has pursued a strategy to secure critical minerals and restructure supply chains across the globe, implementing a series of policies and legislative measures aimed at restoring its dominance in this field. From the Trump administration's perspective, resource-rich Ukraine is a prime target for control. Moreover, the Russia-Ukraine conflict over the past three years has provided the US with an unprecedented opportunity to seize control of Ukraine's resources.

However, the US-Ukraine mineral deal will lead to unpredictable consequences. Firstly, even with room for negotiation and revision, Ukraine is largely in a position where it must accept the terms. Such an imposed agreement could strain future US-Ukraine relations and hinder the implementation of any peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. Additionally, Russia has extended an offer to the US to jointly develop domestic resources, including those in Russian-occupied eastern Ukraine. If the US were to enter into such an agreement with Russia and begin resource extraction in these occupied areas, it would effectively signify the US recognition of Russia's territorial claims. This move would place immense pressure on Ukraine in future multilateral negotiations. Furthermore, the EU has also responded positively to the US proposal, expressing interest in signing a mineral agreement with Ukraine. Should both the US and the EU secure such deals, other pro-Ukraine nations would likely push for similar agreements with Ukraine. Ukraine now faces the looming threat of its underground resources being carved up by global powers.