London summit forms coalition for Ukraine peace, but Europe's autonomy remains in question

Western leaders, including more than a dozen European heads of state and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, united on Sunday in support of Kyiv at a London summit. There, they pledged to spend more on security and assemble a coalition to defend any truce in Ukraine.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said leaders at the summit had agreed on a four-step plan to guarantee peace in Ukraine: maintaining military aid to Ukraine while the conflict continues, increasing economic pressure on Russia, ensuring that any lasting peace guarantees Ukraine's sovereignty and security (with Ukraine at the table for any negotiations), deterring "any future invasion by Russia" in the event of a peace deal, and establishing a "coalition of the willing" to defend Ukraine and uphold peace in the country.

"Europe must do the heavy lifting," he said, emphasizing that the agreement needs U.S. backing.

"Let me be clear, we agree with U.S. President Donald Trump on the urgent need for a durable peace. Now we need to deliver together," he said.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said after the summit that European unity was "at an extremely high level not seen for a long time."

"We are all working together in Europe in order to find a basis for cooperation with America for true peace and guaranteed security," Zelenskyy wrote on Telegram.

Several leaders said they must increase defense spending – something that could help bring Trump on side to offer a U.S. security guarantee in the event of peace.

"After a long time of underinvestment, it is now of utmost importance to step up defense investment for a prolonged period of time," Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, the EU's executive body, told reporters.

Europe's autonomy doubted

The summit took place amid diplomatic tensions, following a heated exchange earlier this week between Zelenskyy and Trump at the White House, which led to the cancellation of an anticipated raw materials deal between the two countries.

But Europe's stepping up is only half of the story, and much depends on whether the U.S. is willing to play its part.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on ABC's "This Week" program that "We'll be ready to reengage when they're ready to make peace," but National Security Adviser Mike Waltz said it was not clear to the administration that Zelenskyy was ready to negotiate an end to the war.

So, the outcome of the summit was seemingly a united European front in backing Zelenskyy, with the promise of more military support for Ukraine to come.

Zhao Huirong, a research fellow at the Institute of Russian, Eastern European and Central Asian Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, doubted the strategic autonomy that Europe pursues.

Noting that European countries, including the UK, Germany and France, have shown much stronger support, Zhao said what they will do next depends on how much they are concerned about the geopolitical situation and the so-called Russian security threat.

It's still too early to say their attitude will always be that way, Zhao said, citing reasons ranging from the U.S. policy shift to differences within European countries.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban posted on X: "European leaders decided in London today that they want to go on with the war instead of opting for peace."

"They decided that Ukraine must continue the war. This is bad, dangerous and mistaken. Hungary remains on the side of peace."

Noting Trump's implementation of this radical policy during his four years in office will allow Europe to pursue more strategic autonomy, Zhao said how far European strategic autonomy can go will largely depend on the continuity of U.S. policy towards Europe after Trump's four years.

If the new U.S. government changes its policy towards Europe, it is more likely that Europe will revert to its previous policy toward the U.S., Zhao said.

(With input from agencies)