Opinions
2025.03.11 19:09 GMT+8

Trump open to push the U.S. into recession to win in trade war

Updated 2025.03.11 19:09 GMT+8
First Voice
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in New York, U.S., March 4, 2025. /Xinhua

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in New York, U.S., March 4, 2025. /Xinhua

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"Bloodbath" – this is how Al Jazeera describes the American stock market after U.S. President Donald Trump declined to rule out the possibility that his tariffs could trigger an economic recession this year.

On Monday in New York, the Nasdaq 100 plummeted by 3.81 percent marking its worst performance since September 2022. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 dropped by 2.7 percent, pushing it nearly 9 percent below its record high from February 19. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also fell by 2 percent.

Major tech stocks also witnessed steep losses, with Tesla shares dropping by 15.4 percent, its worst day since 2020, while Nvidia dropped by 5 percent, Alphabet and Meta declined by more than 4 percent. Overall, the U.S. stock market lost over $1.7 trillion in value in reaction to Trump's wavering stance on tariffs.

Previously, Trump's tariffs had already unnerved investors. While market observers had been expecting the Trump administration — which has repeatedly called for measures to spur the U.S. economy — to introduce incentives to attract investments, Trump instead showed complete indifference to the possibility of an economic recession.

"I hate to predict things like that. There will be a period of transition because what we are doing is very big," Trump suggested, leaving open the likelihood of an economic downturn in an interview with Fox News aired on Sunday. "What I have to do is build a strong country," Trump said, adding "You cannot really watch the stock market."

People work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange in New York, March 4, 2025. /AP

Ironically, Trump is ready for an economic recession to "build a strong country."

Despite the risks of an economic downturn, the businessman-turned-politician is firm on tariffs. When given a chance to explain his comments to Fox News, Trump once again, bragged about the so-called "benefits" of tariffs while speaking to reporters on Air Force One. "Tariffs are going to be the greatest thing we have ever done as a country. They are going to make our country rich again," Trump said on Sunday.

His firm stance on tariffs and indifference to a possible economic downturn has eventually resulted in the bloodbath of the U.S. stock market.

Trump is willing to put "his political vision above the near-term outlook for the U.S. economy," said Kathleen Brooks at XTB. Deutsche Bank's research strategist Jim Reid believes that the Trump administration seems to be prepared for "some pain to re-orientate the economy" and the "pain level is higher than most would have believed a few weeks ago."

"The administration seems to be trying to test the boundaries of the economy's willingness to tolerate rising tariffs. And it doesn't quite know where those boundaries are," the Wall Street Journal quoted Michael Strain, head of economic-policy studies at American Enterprise Institute, as saying.

For the past year, global investors had expected the Trump administration to achieve a soft landing, but Trump's Sunday remarks prove that the government is open to tipping the economy toward a hard landing. While the Trump administration is trying to push the "boundaries" of the economy's tolerance for tariffs, Monday’s market turmoil signals that global investors will not accept a hard landing.

JPMorgan Chase estimates that "extreme U.S. policies" have raised the risk of a recession from 30 percent to 40 percent. Economists at Goldman Sachs also raised their 12-month recession odds from 15 percent to 20 percent.

Trump wants to win the trade war and is happy to push the world's largest economy to the brink of a recession to make his country richer and stronger.

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