Upcoming Trump-Putin talks: Is a ceasefire likely?

U.S. President Donald Trump said he plans to speak to Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on Tuesday and discuss ending the Russia-Ukraine crisis after positive talks between U.S. and Russian officials in Moscow.

"We're doing pretty well, I think, with Russia," Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One during a flight from Florida to Washington on Sunday evening. "I'll be speaking to President Putin on Tuesday. A lot of work's been done over the weekend."

Trump, who is trying to win Putin's support for a 30-day ceasefire proposal that Ukraine accepted last week, said that land and power plants will be part of his conversation with the Russian leader.

"We will be talking about land. We will be talking about power plants," Trump told reporters. "I think we have a lot of it already discussed very much by both sides, Ukraine and Russia."

A 'zero-sum' game

Zhao Junjie, a researcher at the Institute of European Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told CGTN that Tuesday's talks will primarily focus on redrawing Ukraine's territorial boundaries. He said Russia may put forward territorial demands and ownership of nuclear power plants, which are expected to spark intense disputes between Russia and Ukraine.

Likening the situation to the West's zero-sum game rules, Zhao said that for Ukraine, any territorial concession would likely trigger a backlash from the public and media. "Overall, negotiating land exchanges remains one of the most challenging aspects of the talks," he said. "Whoever holds the advantage will gain certain benefits, potentially receiving compensation or even territorial concessions." 

The U.S. and Russia have been engaging in frequent interactions recently. Approximately one month ago, Trump and Putin had a phone conversation in which the two sides discussed the situation in Ukraine and the peaceful settlement of the conflict.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stressed that Trump embraced a quick ceasefire and peaceful settlement of the problem, and Putin underlined the need to eliminate the root causes of the Ukraine conflict. During their talks, the two leaders also agreed to keep in contact, including arranging a meeting in the future.

Following the talk, the two countries' high-level officials began intensive communication. On February 18, high-level delegations from the U.S. and Russia met in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, agreeing to work toward ending the three-year Russia-Ukraine conflict and restoring bilateral relations.

After the meeting, U.S. Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff described the discussions as "positive, upbeat and constructive." Meanwhile, the Kremlin's foreign affairs adviser Yuri Ushakov called them a "serious discussion of all key issues."

According to a statement from the U.S. State Department, both sides agreed to establish a consultation mechanism to "address irritants" in their bilateral relationship and work toward normalizing diplomatic operations.

High-level teams will be appointed to begin "working on a path" to ending the conflict in Ukraine as soon as possible.

A shifting point

Given the current situation, Zhao said he believes Tuesday's talks will achieve some progress. "Russia has paid a heavy price in the ongoing conflict, while Ukraine continues to suffer daily troop losses. Both sides have reached a point where seeking peace and reconciliation has become necessary," said Zhao.

He added that with the new U.S. administration shifting its stance on the conflicts if Washington pushes to end it, both Russia and Ukraine will likely have to go along with it.

In addition to discussing the Ukraine issue, recent U.S.-Russia talks have also focused on restoring bilateral relations.

On February 27, talks between U.S. and Russian delegations on bilateral issues and mending ties concluded in Istanbul. The meeting lasted over six hours and touched on sensitive topics such as the status of Russian diplomatic properties in the U.S., particularly the return of six properties that were "illegally seized" between 2016 and 2018.

After the meeting, the U.S. Department of State said through constructive discussions, the two sides identified specific initial steps to stabilize the operation of the bilateral mission.

"The U.S. and Russia could be entering a new era of global cooperation," said Zhao. He explained that if Trump seeks to rebuild ties with Russia, negotiations may cover nuclear weapons, revisions to the Conventional Armed Forces in Europe Treaty, personnel security, and the supply of strategic materials, which could help ease tensions between Russia and the EU, creating momentum for ending the Russia-Ukraine conflicts. 

However, Zhao noted if the two sides remain deadlocked over key issues, achieving peace will be far more challenging.