Donald Trump's second term in office has led to a great deal of trade uncertainty across the Western Hemisphere, with the ongoing threat of tariffs. Many countries have responded differently, providing little consensus on how to handle the changing economic landscape. CGTN Correspondent Alasdair Baverstock reports.
Mexico City, where the traditional local marketplace is still the beating heart of the neighborhood. Inside these dedicated buildings, customers stroll the aisles: perusing vendors' fresh seasonal vegetables. However changes are looming. Facing the threat 25 percent blanket tariffs on international trade following Donald Trump's return to the White House, micro-economies like this are the among the most vulnerable. Sandra Montes runs a flower stand at the market's entrance.
SANDRA MONTES Flower Vendor "Tulips for instance are produced in Mexico during this season of the year, so they are less expensive. But during the non-productive season when they are imported, a dozen tulips can cost between $40 to $60 when imported from the United States. If you add tariffs to that, prices are going to become unaffordable for our customers."
The final links in the international supply chains that provide goods to end consumers, small-scale vendors here cannot afford to absorb the increased costs that larger commercial operations like supermarket chains might.
SANDRA MONTES Flower Vendor "Markets like this could disappear, because there is more competition from large shopping centers. And if tariffs are added, all of this can disappear, while the larger businesses can grow."
But it's not only here. Across Mexico City, across Mexico, and across Latin America as a whole, the threat of U.S. tariffs is causing economic disruption after Donald Trump's return to the Oval Office.
DONALD TRUMP President of the United States "We're thinking in terms of 25 percent on Mexico and Canada, because they're allowing vast numbers of people to come in and fentanyl to come in."
Mexico's president Claudia Sheinbaum's response has been level-headed, proposing dialogue over economic conflict with every new threat.
CLAUDIA SHEINBAUM Mexican President "As you know, he has his way of communicating, but as we always say, cool heads and optimism allow us to reach an agreement."
In the case of tariffs, Mexico has suggested retaliatory levies would be imposed, measures which would put end a free trade era lasting over 30 years.
OSCAR LEON International Trade Analyst "Twenty-five percent blanket tariffs on imports would mean the de facto end of NAFTA. Because we would no longer be operating within the laws applied by that deal. It would be the definitive end of North American Free Trade."
For Mexico, around 80 percent of whose exports go to the United States, the impact would be disastrous.
OSCAR LEON International Trade Analyst "It's a catastrophic scenario, because Mexico depends more on the U.S. than the U.S. depends on Mexico."
As tariffs loom, everyone from local markets to Mexico's most developed economic sectors, all are bracing for impact.
The tariffs threaten to impact Mexico's most important economic sectors – the largest of which is the automotive industry.
DONALD TRUMP U.S. President "It'll be 25 percent and higher and it'll go very substantially higher over the course of a year."
Guillermo Rosales is the president of the Mexican Association of Automotive Distributors.
GUILLERMO ROSALES AMDA President "Mexico's automotive sector produced revenues of over $100 billion dollars last year. Eighty-seven percent of our manufacture output is destined for export, and 80 percent of those go to the U.S., so we are talking about a serious problem."
A highly integrated industry across the entire region, Rosales argues that the increased tariffs would redraw supply and value chains for the worse.
GUILLERMO ROSALES AMDA President "A single vehicle component, for instance a motor, has been back and forth across the border as many as ten times before being finished."
Mexico is not the only country set to be impacted by the tariffs. Also in the firing line is Brazil, a major U.S. trade partner – although with less dependence on North American commerce.
Gustavo Ribeiro is a founding partner at The Brazilian Report, covering Latin America's largest economy for an international audience.
GUSTAVO RIBEIRO Co-founder The Brazilian Report "Brazil does not depend on the U.S. when we are talking about the overall trade, but the manufacture sector will be hit the hardest because the U.S. is the main destination of manufacture exports."
However, it's not all bad news. Indeed, Brazil faced tariffs during Trump's first term in office, from which other sectors emerged stronger, thanks to market diversification.
GUSTAVO RIBEIRO Co-founder The Brazilian Report "The biggest winners however could be Brazilian farmers, because when Trump raised tariffs against China, that made China turn to Brazil for many agricultural products such as meat, poultry and soybeans, on which Brazilian farmers compete with American farmers for market. So many Chinese buyers look to Brazil instead of the U.S."
Brazil may be the region's largest economy, but tariffs threaten Latin America as a whole – where there is little consensus.
As the Trump administration's mass deportations began in late January, an emergency summit of the Council of Latin American Caribbean and States was cancelled over disagreements on how to respond.
GUSTAVO RIBEIRO Co-founder The Brazilian Report "Very few things have been consensual in terms of Latin American foreign policy. Latin American countries as a whole are very different in their interests. They do not seek the same things from their relationship with the U.S."
The imposition of tariffs may hurt Latin American economies, but its impacts will be felt in the U.S. as well, a country which imports a quarter of everything it consumes.
GUILLERMO ROSALES AMDA President "Sixteen percent of all the cars sold in the United States are produced in Mexico, and tariffs would mean a cost increase of $6,000 on every vehicle sold in the U.S."
Mexico's own finance minister pointed this out as part of his government's wide response to the tariff threat.
MARCELO EBRARD Mexico Finance Minister "U.S. consumers would be affected, firstly because prices would rise 25 percent on all these products. Secondly, there would be fewer available products because if you impose a 25 percent tariff, obviously, demand dwindles, not only in the short term but also, it will create increasing harm the longer it lasts."
Ultimately, as the resumption of trade hostilities occurs under President Trump, the political tactic of economic disruption will destabilize the Western Hemisphere, in an era when regional unity may be these countries' greatest source of strength.