Analysts expound on China's tech path beyond U.S. tariffs

On Thursday, U.S. President Donald Trump announced the "reciprocal tariffs," under which his administration will impose varying tariff rates on all trade partners. As part of this policy, the U.S. plans to levy a 34 percent tariff on Chinese imports. 

The semiconductor industry, previously a focus of trade tensions, was not included in the latest tariff list. Despite the semiconductor sector being excluded this time, prior policies have already pushed U.S. tariffs on Chinese semiconductors to 50 percent, effective January 2025.

In recent years, the U.S. has intensified its technological restrictions on China. Since 2018, over 2,000 Chinese entities in key sectors, such as artificial intelligence, quantum computing, semiconductors, and aerospace, have been added to the "Entity List."

Amid these trade barriers, Chinese technology firms have demonstrated resilience by leveraging their self-developed technological systems and global supply chains.

China's semiconductor industry, for instance, achieved significant milestones in 2024. According to China's General Administration of Customs, chip exports reached 298.11 billion units, with a total export value of $159.5 billion, an 18.7 percent year-on-year increase.

China's global trade infrastructure has also expanded rapidly. As of May 2024, the Ministry of Commerce reported that China had established over 2,500 overseas warehouses, covering more than 30 million square meters.

Long-term investments in fundamental research are now translating into core competitive advantages. Data from the Ministry of Science and Technology show that China's spending on basic research rose to 8.3 percent of total research and development investment in 2024.

As concerns mount over the impact of new U.S. tariffs, leading economists warn that the new U.S. tariffs could destabilize domestic industries and send shockwaves through the global economy.

As global trade and economic structures face potential fragmentation, an analysis by the Zhejiang Institute of Industry and Information Technology suggests that China should adopt a phased approach to achieving technological self-sufficiency.

In the semiconductor sector, the report recommends focusing resources on developing a fully independent supply chain for the mature 28-nanometer process, from EDA tools to photoresists, while enhancing performance through advanced chiplet packaging technology.

The report also warns against the "self-sufficiency trap," cautioning that an isolated approach could lead to missed opportunities for technological integration. Instead, it advocates for "open-source innovation" to attract global intellectual resources.