But just how much of an impact will the tariffs have on China's export performance and global supply chains? Are these measures effective in reshaping the trade balance—or are they hurting American manufacturing more than helping? CGTN's Zhou Yixin sits down with an expert from China's National Development and Reform Commission to find out. 

ZHOU YIXIN, CGTN Reporter "Mrs. Zhao, thank you for joining us on CGTN. In your opinion, would the reciprocal tariffs imposed by the US on China have an impact on China's exports?"

ZHAO JING, Associate Professor, International Cooperation Center, National Development and Reform Commission "In the short term, the US tariff hikes will indeed have a negative impact on China's exports, possibly leading to a slight decline in export volume. However, from a medium- to long-term perspective, I believe the overall impact is limited."

"First, China's export dependence on the US has declined in recent years. In 2024, exports to the US accounted for only 14.6% of China's total outbound trade. By contrast, American consumers rely more heavily on Chinese products—some categories even have a dependency rate of over 50%, making short-term substitution difficult."

"Second, China has significantly diversified its export markets. In 2024, nearly half of China's total exports went to Belt and Road partner countries. Third, China has a strong advantage in full industrial chain support. China is currently the only country that covers all industrial categories defined by the United Nations. According to the UN Industrial Development Organization, China's share of global manufacturing output is expected to reach 45% by 2030."

"In addition, I'd like to address the US government's concerns about the trade deficit. While China does maintain a trade surplus in goods, we have long run a deficit in services trade—with the US being the largest source of that deficit. Services trade—covering areas like tourism, intellectual property, logistics, and cross-border payments. Western countries, especially the US, have a longer history in developing services trade. The US has leveraged this advantage to shape many global services trade rules. Many of the global rules on transportation services—such as ocean freight pricing, maritime arbitration, and shipping finance—have been largely set by the US and European countries. These 'unilateral terms' allow the US to benefit—such as by requiring certain goods to be shipped by US logistics or shipping firms, to secure high margins."

ZHOU YIXIN, CGTN Reporter "Regarding the US goal of bringing manufacturing back home, do you think imposing tariffs is an effective solution?"

ZHAO JING, Associate Professor, International Cooperation Center, National Development and Reform Commission "In our view, the tariffs will not help bring manufacturing back to the US. In fact, they may accelerate the decline of domestic manufacturing and deepen industrial hollowing. For one, the US lacks a cost advantage in manufacturing. Labor and raw material costs are relatively high. Tariffs would further drive up input costs, which in turn raises the costs for domestic manufacturers—ultimately hurting the very sector they aim to protect. Third, policy uncertainty in the US creates insecurity and even fear for manufacturers. An unstable policy environment discourages investment and negatively impacting the industry."