New study reveals accelerated warming trend on Qinghai-Xizang Plateau

Chinese researchers have revealed that the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau is expected to experience accelerated warming in the next 10 years, according to the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) under the Chinese Academy of Sciences.

While traditional climate projections can highlight long-term trends, temperature changes on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau over the next decade remain highly uncertain due to substantial internal climate variability.

However, a new study utilizing decadal climate prediction – an emerging tool that combines the initial state of the climate system with external forcing – suggests improved accuracy in regional climate forecasts.

Researchers from the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) analyzed advanced international decadal prediction systems to assess the predictability of temperature changes on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau.

Their findings indicate that between 2025 and 2032, the region's annual mean temperature will rise by 0.98 degrees Celsius compared to the 1991-2020 baseline. This warming rate is 1.75 times faster than the observed increase from 2016 to 2023.

Using the Open Global Glacier Model, the researchers simulated the impact of accelerated warming on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau glaciers. The results suggest that the warming is projected to reduce glacier volume by approximately 1.4 percent, leading to faster melt rates that threaten water security for hundreds of millions across Asia.

This dramatic loss also risks destabilizing regional ecological balance and could trigger far-reaching climatic consequences globally.

The study also highlights that the decadal predictability of temperatures on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau is influenced not only by external factors such as greenhouse gas concentrations but also by internal climate variability, particularly the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation.

The study was published in the journal Science Bulletin.

(Cover: Snow mountains in Xizang Autonomous Region, southwest China. /VCG)