Apple has few incentives to start making iPhones in U.S., despite Trump's trade war with China

U.S. President Donald Trump's administration has been predicting its barrage of tariffs targeting China will push Apple into manufacturing the iPhone in the United States for the first time.

But that's an unlikely scenario even with U.S tariffs now standing at 145 percent on products made in China – the country where Apple has manufactured most of its iPhones since the first model hit the market 18 years ago.

The disincentives for Apple shifting its production domestically include a complex supply chain that it began building in China during the 1990s. It would take several years and cost billions of dollars to build new plants in the U.S., and then confront Apple with economic forces that could triple the price of an iPhone, threatening to torpedo sales of its marquee product.

"The concept of making iPhones in the U.S. is a non–starter," asserted Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives, reflecting a widely held view in the investment community that tracks Apple's every move. He estimated that the current $1,000 price tag for an iPhone made in China, or India, would soar to more than $3,000 if production shifted to the U.S. And he believes that moving production domestically likely couldn't be done until, at the earliest, 2028. "Price points would move so dramatically, it's hard to comprehend."

Apple has yet to publicly discuss its response to Trump's tariffs on China, but the topic may come up on May 1, when Apple CEO Tim Cook is scheduled to field questions from analysts during a quarterly conference call to discuss the company's financial results and strategy.

And there is no doubt the China tariffs will be a hot–button issue given that Apple's stock price has dropped by 15 percent and lowered the company's market value by $500 billion since Trump began increasing them on April 2.