Chinese experts propose $14 trillion consumption push, Hainan as global trade hub

Chinese experts outlined bold strategies to turbocharge domestic consumption and elevate the Hainan Free Trade Port as a global economic gateway at two high-profile events in Haikou, south China's Hainan Province, underscoring the nation's resolve to counter trade headwinds and reshape its growth model around consumer demand.

Invest in people, says expert

At an event about consumption development research on Monday, Chi Fulin, president of the China Institute for Reform and Development, warned that cautious consumer sentiment – driven by weak income growth expectations – threatens economic resilience. His solution: a $14 trillion "investment in people" over the next decade, focusing on education, healthcare and urbanization to unlock the spending power of China's 1.4 billion consumers.

"By prioritizing human capital, we can transform a massive population into a sustainable engine for growth," Chi said, noting that service-sector consumption, still lagging in rural areas, holds the key to upgrading the economy.

While the plans are ambitious, challenges remain. Zhao Jinping, a former Ministry of Commerce researcher, noted that household savings rates – still above 45 percent – reflect deep-seated anxieties about job security and social welfare. His prescription: leveraging digital industries to boost rural incomes, reforming land rights to unlock agricultural wealth and strengthening safety nets for workers. "Consumers won't spend unless they feel financially secure," he warned.

Plans to make Hainan a 'shock absorber' against trade protectionism

A day earlier, at a symposium about the Hainan Free Trade Port, experts doubled down on turning Hainan into a showcase of high-level openness. Chi stressed that the port's planned "closed-loop" customs system – isolating the island from mainland tariffs – would make it a "shock absorber" for U.S. trade pressures.

Other experts highlighted Hainan's potential as an international tourism and consumption hub. Proposals included expanding visa-free entry for tourists, attracting international universities and hospitals, and aligning regulations with standards like the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) to lure high-spending global visitors.

Global collaboration to revive free trade

Amid rising protectionism, Chinese think tanks are also going global. The China Institute for Reform and Development announced a partnership with the World Free Zones Organization to launch the "World Free Trade Forum" in October. "Free trade remains the world's most vital public good," Chi said, adding that Hainan could host the 2026 APEC Summit to solidify its role as a global policy hub.