Climate change intensifies snow droughts: study

A new study has warned that global warming will likely fuel more frequent snow droughts in the future.

The study, led by researchers from the Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography under the Chinese Academy of Sciences, was recently published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.

Snow droughts occur when there is an abnormally low snowpack for the season, classified as "dry" – resulting from below-normal winter precipitation, "warm" – caused by warmer temperatures that lead to rain rather than snow or early snowmelt despite normal precipitation levels, and "compound" – a combination of both dry and warm conditions.

Using multi-model climate projections, the researchers analyzed long-term trends in snow drought frequency under various emissions scenarios. Their results show a marked increase in snow drought events through the end of the century. By 2100, snow drought frequency could triple under the intermediate SSP2-4.5 scenario and quadruple under the high-emission SSP5-8.5 scenario, compared to the 1981 baseline.

Notably, warm snow droughts are expected to dominate future trends. By 2050, they could comprise about 65 percent of all snow drought events. Under the SSP5-8.5 pathway, the frequency of warm snow droughts could rise by 6.6 times, while compound dry-warm events – posing the greatest risk to ecosystems and water infrastructure – may become 3.7 times more common.

The study also revealed that, spatially, mid- and high-latitude regions are projected to experience more frequent and intense snow droughts.

These findings provide critical scientific insights to inform water security strategies and climate adaptation efforts worldwide, according to the study.

(Cover: The Kanas scenic area in Altay Prefecture, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, northwest China, January 24, 2025. /VCG)