Trump flaunts mega-deals with Gulf states. But will it help at home?

U.S. President Donald Trump's high-profile visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates from May 13 to 16 was marked by grand welcomes and historic economic agreements.

The four-day tour through the oil-rich Gulf states saw Trump signing deals worth trillions of dollars. Yet the absence of Israel on his itinerary and the scale of the promised investments have sparked questions about both the feasibility of these deals and the real motive behind his trip.

Lavish promises, lingering doubts

The figures are staggering. Saudi Arabia promised to invest $600 billion in the U.S., while Qatar and the U.S. agreed on a $1.2 trillion "economic exchange." Major projects were also signed with the United Arab Emirates after Abu Dhabi in March committed to a 10-year, $1.4 trillion investment framework in the U.S.

However, experts have voiced skepticism over the viability of these massive pledges. "These deals aren't likely to materialize in the short term. They will take four to 10 years at least, and some may eventually be shelved," said Zou Zhiqiang, a researcher at Fudan University's Center for Middle East Studies.

Concerns about deal implementation aren't new. NPR reported that a similar $350 billion arms agreement Trump touted during his 2017 Saudi visit largely failed to materialize. Trade data from the U.S. Department of Commerce shows total U.S. exports to Saudi Arabia from 2017 to 2020 amounted to just $92 billion – far from the multi-trillion-dollar figures now being claimed.

While Saudi Arabia holds substantial U.S. assets in the form of securities, its direct investment stock in the U.S. was only $9.5 billion as of 2023, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This makes the $600 billion figure look more like political theater than economic reality.

Analysts say Trump's primary focus remains on domestic political considerations. Facing sliding poll numbers and intense scrutiny over economic policy and inflation, Trump appears to be using flashy foreign deals to redirect public attention, even if the deals are unlikely to impact Americans in the near term.

Brian Katulis, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, said in an analysis that Trump's approval rating after his first 100 days is the lowest of any president in the last 80 years. His administration is hoping that the narrative of Gulf states' investments will serve as a distraction from economic dissatisfaction within the country.

A retreat from regional conflicts

Trump's itinerary during the tour notably excluded Israel, even as tensions continue in Gaza, Syria, and with Yemen and Iran, which experts say reflected a broader shift in U.S. Middle East policy – one that distances Washington from regional conflict resolution.

Trump's administration entered office with bold goals: ending the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, curbing Iran's nuclear development and normalizing Saudi-Israeli ties, but so far none of those have been achieved.

Andreas Krieg, a senior lecturer at the School of Security Studies at King's College London, commented that the Trump administration lacks both the capacity and the will to address regional crises and that they're relying more on Gulf states to manage regional issues themselves.

The trip has also highlighted growing rifts between the U.S. and Israel. Trump not only skipped Israel in his Middle East tour but also announced on May 13 that the U.S. would lift some sanctions on Syria, which further strained ties with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Previously, the Trump administration bypassed Israel to reach a direct agreement with Hamas, securing the release of the last American hostage held in Gaza. Meanwhile, the ceasefire between the U.S. and the Houthis has failed to prevent continued attacks on Israeli targets.

Wang Jin, a research fellow from the Syria Research Center at Northwest University in China, said the U.S. appears increasingly out of sync with Israel. "On issues like Syria and the Houthis, the U.S. is opting for pragmatic dialogue, whereas Israel expects a more aggressive stance."

Former Israeli diplomat Alon Pinkas summarized the changing dynamics bluntly. He told CNN that Trump isn't against Israel, but neither does he care about Israel. He added that Netanyahu has nothing Trump wants and has become an irritant for Trump – "an irritant doesn't contribute to the bank account."

(With input from agencies)