Calls for restraint amid escalating Israel-Iran conflict

Editor's note: Jessica Durdu, a special commentator on current affairs for CGTN, is a foreign affairs specialist and PhD candidate in international relations at China Foreign Affairs University. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

The Israeli Ministry of Defense has confirmed a large-scale airstrike on Iranian territory, targeting multiple nuclear and military sites under its military operation codenamed Rising Lion. Explosions were reported in Tehran, while Israel declared a state of emergency, suspended civilian activities, and closed its airspace. In response, Iran launched dozens of ballistic missiles at Israel, marking a critical escalation in the longstanding hostilities between the two regional powers, which runs the risk of triggering a greater conflict in the Middle East and beyond.

The current crisis, while appearing bilateral, has regional and global implications. It challenges the already fragile security architecture of the Middle East, endangers ongoing diplomatic efforts, and carries the potential to unleash severe humanitarian consequences across multiple states. In such a context, immediate calls for de-escalation, restraint, and the reinvigoration of diplomacy must be made to preserve international peace and security.

Israel's strike on Iran's territory reflects not only an intensification of the military confrontation between the two states but also a broader strategic contest with ideological, geopolitical, and nuclear dimensions. Israel's military action was reportedly motivated by concerns over Iran's nuclear program and discontent with the ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations. However, the use of force has undermined the prospects of reaching a diplomatic resolution and provoked retaliatory action from Iran.

The region is already tangled in a complex web of conflicts and tensions, from Syria's prolonged civil war to persistent instability in Iraq, and the humanitarian crisis in Palestine and Lebanon. A new front involving Israel and Iran would strain the region's capacity for crisis management and risk drawing neighboring countries into the conflict. Military escalation on multiple fronts could lead to a collapse of the regional security equilibrium, with long-term consequences for state sovereignty, cross-border trade, and political stability.

One of the gravest consequences of a protracted Israel-Iran confrontation would be the exacerbation of humanitarian crises. Large-scale missile exchanges or targeted strikes on urban centers could result in mass civilian casualties, the destruction of essential infrastructure, and a new wave of displacement. Countries such as Lebanon and Jordan, already hosting significant refugee populations, may be unable to cope with another influx. The humanitarian organizations operating in the region are under-resourced and overextended; any escalation would overwhelm relief efforts and delay recovery in already devastated areas.

The Middle East remains one of the world's most vulnerable regions in terms of food insecurity, healthcare access, and economic fragility. A new war would deepen poverty, disrupt supply chains, and halt reconstruction programs. It would also widen sectarian and political divides, feeding radicalization and destabilizing societies from within. The international community must recognize that beyond strategic calculations, it is the civilian populations who bear the brunt of geopolitical misjudgments.

The crisis also holds significant ramifications for global stability. Immediately following the Israeli strike, the global financial markets reacted sharply. Oil prices surged, gold reached a record high, and investor confidence declined. Should hostilities expand to critical maritime routes such as the Strait of Hormuz, the global energy supply would be threatened, disproportionately affecting developing economies and low-income populations.

Moreover, the continued marginalization of multilateral mechanisms in favor of unilateral military action undermines the post-Cold War global order. The erosion of trust in diplomatic institutions and international law is increasingly evident. If the major powers fail to intervene constructively, the precedent set by such failure could destabilize other regions grappling with unresolved disputes.

The deterioration of the diplomatic space between the U.S., Iran, and Israel also jeopardizes broader non-proliferation efforts. Should Iran withdraw from cooperation mechanisms, and if Israel continues to act outside international frameworks, the region could witness an uncontrolled arms race with nuclear implications, one that would be far more difficult to reverse.

Preventing a larger catastrophe requires immediate and coordinated diplomatic intervention. Regional actors such as Türkiye, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Oman, along with global powers including China, the European Union, and the United Nations, must mediate between the parties and preserve the viability of the U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, as Iran reportedly plans to pull out of nuclear talks with the U.S. scheduled to take place in Oman on Sunday.

Following Israel's missile attacks on Iran, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson expressed China's serious concern over the potential consequences, urging all parties to avoid further escalation and work toward regional peace and stability. China also reiterated its willingness to play a constructive role in de-escalating the situation.

Maintaining open diplomatic channels, reaffirming commitments to international law, and initiating confidence-building measures are essential. In parallel, robust humanitarian action must be planned to prepare for the worst-case scenarios and protect vulnerable populations.

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