Potential U.S. strike on Iran? Experts warn of high costs, escalation risks

As tensions continue to simmer in the Middle East, analysts warn that any U.S. involvement in a military strike against Iran's nuclear program could carry grave consequences. With Israel reportedly prepared to act alone, Washington faces difficult choices – each with escalating strategic and humanitarian implications. 

According to the White House, U.S. President Donald Trump would decide whether to strike Iran "within two weeks."

According to CNN analysis, Washington is weighing three primary options regarding Iran.

The first and currently prevailing approach is to allow Israel to continue its targeted strikes without direct U.S. involvement.

The second option involves a limited U.S. strike, most likely targeting Iran's Fordow nuclear facility, a heavily fortified site buried deep in the mountains of Iran. Alex Plitsas, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, told U.S. media that only one aircraft in the American arsenal is capable of carrying the 30,000-pound Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) required for such a mission – the B-2 stealth bomber.

The Wall Street Journal has pointed out that the GBU-57 MOP could be used if the U.S. decided to strike Fordow. The GBU-57 is one of the most powerful non-nuclear weapons in the U.S. arsenal. Sometimes referred to as a "bunker buster," the 6-meter-long bomb is engineered to penetrate up to 61 meters underground before detonation. Equipped with advanced guidance systems, the MOP is designed to burrow deep into reinforced structures before exploding, maximizing its destructive effect on underground facilities like Fordow.

The third – and least likely – scenario involves a broader, multi-target campaign. This would not only include nuclear facilities like Fordow but could extend to government buildings and oil refineries. This scale of attack would likely only be on the table if Iran directly targets U.S. forces in the region, Plitsas added.

Fallout from a strike on Fordow

The consequences of striking Fordow would extend far beyond the initial impact zone, Zhang Xiaole, assistant professor at Tsinghua University, said during his interview with China Media Group (CMG). He outlined three major risks associated with such a strike.

- Chemical toxicity

"The Fordow site likely houses significant quantities of uranium hexafluoride," Zhang explained. "This is an extremely corrosive substance. If released, it reacts rapidly with moisture in the air to form hydrogen fluoride and uranium oxides."

Hydrogen fluoride is a highly toxic gas. Inhalation can lead to severe respiratory damage and potentially fatal pulmonary edema. "This poses an immediate threat to emergency responders and nearby populations," Zhang warned.

- Radiological hazards

Beyond chemical toxicity, the risk of radioactive exposure looms large, according to Zhang. An explosion or fire could release fine radioactive particles into the air, he pointed out.

"These particles, when inhaled, emit alpha radiation directly into the lungs, increasing the long-term risk of cancer and other chronic illnesses," Zhang said. "Radiation exposure is often invisible and insidious, making it a particularly dangerous legacy of such an attack."

Those living downwind, particularly children, the elderly and people with pre-existing health conditions, would be most at risk, he added.

- Environmental and agricultural contamination

The environmental impact could be profound and long-lasting, Zhang also warned. Radioactive dust and chemical residues could settle on soil and water sources, contaminating irrigation systems and entering the food chain, he said.

This type of contamination has both persistence and diffusivity, Zhang stressed, adding it could compromise local agriculture for years, diminishing food safety and water quality, and potentially affecting broader populations through interconnected ecosystems.