Why now? Experts decode Trump's strikes on Iran nuclear sites

In a move marking a significant escalation in tensions in the Middle East, U.S. President Donald Trump said on Saturday that he had ordered targeted strikes on three Iranian nuclear sites.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said the "outrageous" U.S. attacks on Iran's "peaceful nuclear installations" will have "everlasting consequences."

In interviews with CGTN, experts suggest the U.S. strikes were carefully calibrated and are likely to bring negotiations over the Iran nuclear issue to a halt.

What drove Trump's attacks?

U.S. domestic political calculus might be behind Trump's decision to strike the three nuclear sites in Iran, said Zhao Hai, director of International Politics Program at the National Institute for Global Strategy of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

Domestic anti-war sentiment in the U.S. is running high, with little support for full-scale military intervention in the Middle East against Iran, Zhao told CGTN. "As a result, Trump had little choice but to opt for a targeted strike on Iran's nuclear facilities."

Zhao said Trump is walking a middle path – carefully avoiding full-scale involvement while still attempting to meet its close ally Israel's claimed minimal demand: a surgical strike on Iran's nuclear installations. Following such an operation, Trump could easily declare victory, he said.

What does it mean for Israel and Iran?

There are ways for both Israel and Iran, as well as the United States, to spin the U.S. attacks as victories for their own agendas, said Zhao.

Israel can claim victory by drawing the U.S. into direct involvement, he said.

Trump can claim that he has achieved a long-sought goal – destroying Iran's nuclear capabilities – that the administration under President Barack Obama failed to secure through diplomacy, Zhao said.

Iran, despite the damage brought by the attacks, retains critical nuclear assets and can still retaliate against Israel and even the United States, he added.

In future negotiations, Iran will retain leverage, and the government's stability remains intact, as the U.S. has privately, and publicly, ruled out regime change, he said.

Are there risks of nuclear radiation?

Yu Guoqing, executive director of the Chinese Association of Middle East Studies and a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences' Institute of West Asia and African Studies, said there are legitimate and valid concerns in the international community over whether the U.S. strikes will cause nuclear radiation.

"I believe such concerns are justified," Yu told CGTN.

However, he said, the U.S. strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities were pre-announced, with early warnings, and particularly, information had long been conveyed to Iran.

In this regard, it should be said that the U.S. and Iran had reached a certain level of tacit understanding – allowing Iran to relocate key nuclear facilities and enriched uranium to other locations before the attacks, thereby avoiding large-scale and severe radiation, Yu added.

What next for Iran nuclear negotiations?

Subsequent talks on the Iran nuclear issue, particularly multilateral international negotiations, will likely be put on hold, Yu said.

He noted that Iran recently held discussions with the UK, France and Germany on the nuclear issue, but no substantive progress was achieved.

The U.S., in fact, opposes these European nations engaging with Iran, especially their negotiations with Tehran without ensuring the complete elimination of Iran's nuclear facilities, he added.

"Therefore, I think future multilateral talks on Iran's nuclear issue may be delayed for a while, as all parties involved will need to assess the evolving situation before deciding on the next steps."