Analysis: What would happen if Iran blocked Strait of Hormuz?

The Iranian parliament on Sunday voted in favor of closing the strategic Strait of Hormuz, though the final decision rests with the country's Supreme National Security Council.

The move follows a dramatic escalation of tensions in the Middle East after the United States launched air strikes on three major Iranian nuclear facilities on Sunday. In response, Tehran asserted its right to pursue all options for self-defense.

The growing conflict continues to roil global energy markets, with the potential closure of the strait heightening anxiety across the international oil and gas industry.

The Strait of Hormuz, located between Iran and Oman, is the world's most critical maritime passage for oil, accounting for roughly 20 percent of global oil and gas shipments. Experts warn that any disruption – even temporary – to tanker traffic through the strait could trigger a sharp spike in global energy prices, drive up transportation costs and lead to significant delays in supply.

Fortune magazine recently cited Deutsche Bank's head of foreign exchange research, George Saravelos, who warned that in the worst-case scenario – complete disruption of Iranian oil exports and a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz – oil prices could surge past $120 per barrel.

"Given the enormous global implications of such a move, we believe a blockade of the strait would likely be used only as a last resort," Saravelos said.

Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic advisor at Allianz, echoed the concerns. Speaking to the BBC, he said, "This could deliver a major shock at an already fragile moment for the global economy."

El-Erian added that both the short- and long-term consequences would be negative, calling it yet another blow to the U.S.-led global economic order, which is already under increasing pressure.

The Baltic and International Maritime Council (BIMCO), one of the world's largest shipping associations, recently stated that the large-scale conflict between Israel and Iran has made the entire shipping industry uneasy. Many ships have chosen to avoid the Strait of Hormuz, and the number of ships passing through Hormuz is declining.

High uncertainty

Niu Xinchun, a professor at the China-Arab Research Institute of Ningxia University, said that the situation was no longer under the U.S.'s control after its attacks on Iran.

According to U.S. President Donald Trump, the U.S. military strike was a one-time attack, and he hoped that Iran could return to peaceful negotiations, Niu said. "However, it is uncertain how likely this situation is to occur."

Niu pointed out that Iran may take a series of military actions against the U.S. military, Israel, the Strait of Hormuz and other regions in the future.

Based on Iran's previous threats, if the U.S. military attacks Iran's nuclear facilities, Iran will inevitably attack U.S. military bases in the Middle East, as U.S. bases in the Middle East are close to Iran.

In addition, Iran has previously threatened that it might publicly announce its withdrawal from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and start to openly manufacture nuclear weapons. "This is also an option for Iran," Niu said.

It is still uncertain whether Iran will take this series of actions and to what extent it will take these actions, Niu said, adding that the Middle East will be in a state of high uncertainty in the next few days.