How much of Iran's nuclear capacity remains? U.S., Israel and Iran send mixed signals

Editor's note: CGTN's "Unraveling the Israel-Iran Conundrum" series offers a deep dive into the pivotal moments of the recent conflict and their implications for the Middle East and beyond.

The United States, Israel and Iran have offered markedly different accounts of the damage inflicted on Iran's nuclear program after a recent wave of airstrikes, revealing not only deep strategic divergences but also competing narratives aimed at shaping global perceptions. While Washington and Tel Aviv tout major setbacks to Tehran's capabilities, Iran insists it remains resolute – and ready to rebuild.

The CIA on Wednesday released a statement confirming that U.S. strikes last week inflicted severe damage on Iran's nuclear infrastructure. The agency cited "reliable intelligence" indicating that multiple key facilities had been destroyed and would take "years" to rebuild.

Speaking at the NATO summit in The Hague, U.S. President Donald Trump claimed that the Iranian nuclear program had been pushed back by "decades." He added that the U.S. would "definitely" strike again if Iran restarted its nuclear development.

Trump also announced that Washington would begin negotiations with Tehran on a potential new nuclear deal in the coming week, expressing confidence that the recent military conflict between Israel and Iran had ended – though he admitted it could reignite soon.

The Israeli side offered similar conclusions. Chief of the General Staff of the Israel Defense Forces, Eyal Zamir, said that after 12 days of fighting, the military had achieved its objectives. He described the damage to Iran's nuclear program as "systemic," not merely tactical, estimating that it had been set back by several years.

"We will not allow Iran to produce weapons of mass destruction," Zamir stressed in a video address.

Iran, in a rare admission, acknowledged the extent of the damage. Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman, Esmaeil Baghaei, confirmed that U.S. B-2 bombers had caused "serious destruction" to nuclear sites. He declined to offer specifics but condemned what he called "inconsistent messages" from Washington.

Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi said the attacks had only strengthened Iran's resolve to maintain and expand its nuclear capabilities. "No one in Iran will give up nuclear technology," he said, citing the sacrifices of scientists and citizens over decades.

Behrouz Kamalvandi, spokesman for the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, said preparations for restarting the program were already in place. "Our strategy is to ensure there is no interruption to production or services," he said, insisting that Iran had the strength to rebuild and continue its nuclear industry.

In a televised interview with France 2, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Grossi on Wednesday cast doubt on the U.S. claim that Iran's nuclear progress had been undone by decades, calling it a "political assessment."

Grossi acknowledged the facilities were "seriously damaged" but emphasized that any timeline for recovery would depend on Iran's next steps.

Iran parliament moves to suspend IAEA cooperation

The Iranian parliament voted on Wednesday to suspend cooperation with the IAEA – a move still requiring final approval by Iran's Supreme National Security Council.

The IAEA chief reiterated that cooperation with the agency is Iran's legal obligation under the Non-Proliferation Treaty, while also warning against military strikes on nuclear infrastructure, which are prohibited under international law.

According to Niu Xinchun, a professor at the China-Arab States Research Institute at Ningxia University, Iran's decision was a direct response to the recent U.S. and Israeli attacks, which targeted facilities operating under IAEA supervision.

"This is also a signal," Niu said, "that Iran could use cooperation with the IAEA as a bargaining chip in future negotiations with the U.S."

Deep divides remain

Experts said the conflicting narratives reflect deeper, unresolved tensions. Li Zixin, an assistant research fellow at the China Institute of International Studies, warned that Iran's suspension of IAEA cooperation had plunged its nuclear activities into "a state of opacity."

He cautioned that preemptive military actions could backfire, particularly given Iran's long-standing investment in nuclear expertise. "The knowledge cannot be bombed away," he said.

With the 2015 Iran nuclear deal set to expire in October and no new international framework in place, experts fear the Middle East could face a serious breach in the nuclear non-proliferation regime. 

"The differences haven't narrowed," Li noted. "And without compromise, the risk of escalation remains very real."