Opinions
2025.07.24 19:10 GMT+8

'China's export shock on South-East Asia' holds no water

Updated 2025.07.24 19:10 GMT+8
Zhou Xin

Cargo ships berthing at a container dock of Qingdao Port in Qingdao, east China's Shandong Province, April 30, 2025. /Xinhua

Editor's note: Zhou Xin is an observer on international affairs, focusing on the Asia-Pacific region. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

Recently, the coverage of the so-called export shock that China has supposedly wreaked on Southeast Asia has been rampant in some Western media, badmouthing trade between China and ASEAN countries and complaining that Chinese products have hollowed out the manufacturing industries in Southeast Asia resulting in a collapsing employment market in the region, pushing them to adopt trade protectionist measures.

In fact, this point of view is nothing but another false narrative against China and a despicable move with ulterior motives to depict China as a threat. It undermines China-ASEAN friendship and cooperation. Over the past decades, China and its Southeast Asian neighbors have been enjoying economic links which are highly complementary, mutually beneficial and greatly productive.

The true picture lies in the exact trade figures. Based on the data released by China's General Administration of Customs and Ministry of Commerce, in 2024, China-ASEAN trade volume topped $982.34 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.8 percent. The two sides have remained each other's largest trading partners for the fifth consecutive year.

China's exports, mostly machinery, electronics and chemical materials, are in demand in Southeast Asia as intermediate products to upgrade the latter's manufacturing edge. At the same time, China mainly imports from ASEAN countries their agricultural products, mineral products and electronic components. For example, Thai rubber exports to China account for more than 60 percent of its total exports, and Malaysia's palm oil accounts for more than half of its total commodity exports to China.

It's clear that China-ASEAN trade is definitely not a zero-sum game, but an interdependent relationship defined by mutual benefit. Furthermore, China's high-quality exports, technological strength and sustained investment have not harmed Southeast Asia, but have instead benefited the entire region.

First, it helps Southeast Asia speed up industrialization and industrial upgrade. From Cambodia's first expressway to Indonesia's landmark high-speed rail, China has been a trustworthy partner and key contributor to advancing infrastructure development and connectivity advancement in Southeast Asia. In emerging sectors like renewable energy and electric vehicles, Chinese companies are not just exporting end products; they are setting up local manufacturing bases which lead to more know-how sharing and more technological transfer.

Thanks to the concerted efforts between China and the relevant ASEAN countries, quite a few projects, such as "Two Countries, Twin Parks," have been put into operation as a successful and efficient model to advance industrial capacity cooperation between China and Southeast Asia, which will certainly further benefit the latter in terms of promoting manufacturing upgrades, accelerating industrialization and adding strength to the modernization process.

Moreover, it helps Southeast Asia to create more job opportunities. According to data from the National Development and Reform Commission of China, as of July 2023, China had established more than 6,500 direct investment enterprises in ASEAN, representing a huge demand for local employees. The East Coast Rail Link project in Malaysia created 23,000 jobs during the peak of its construction period. The BYD factory in Thailand has taken on more than 6,100 Thai employees one year after its opening. Chinese companies have invested and participated in establishing six industrial parks in Vietnam, creating about 300,000 jobs.

Entrances to the Genting Tunnel of the East Coast Rail Link, a mega rail project being built by the China Communications Construction Company, in Pahang state, Malaysia, July 12, 2025. /Xinhua

The booming digital cooperation between China and Southeast Asian countries will drive rapid growth of e-commerce, e-payment, artificial intelligence and other related industries, thereby boosting employment demand in areas such as software development, data analysis, etc. Through high-quality capacity building and technical training programs provided by the Chinese companies, the Southeast Asian countries will also benefit from developing a professional and highly skilled workforce.

In addition, it helps level up the status of ASEAN in the global industrial chain. China's exports of intermediate products to ASEAN account for 67 percent of its total exports to the region; these products are processed in Southeast Asian countries and then exported globally with high-added value, gradually transforming Southeast Asia from a low-end assembly line into medium and high-end manufacturing platforms in the global value chain.

In summary, narratives about "China's export shock" don't reflect economic reality. They serve as a geopolitical agenda and are aimed at driving a wedge between China and its Southeast Asian neighbors. As China and ASEAN work together to upgrade their free trade agreements, succumbing to protectionist pressures would mean turning one's back on a historic opportunity for deeper regional integration and greater economic prosperity.

The right path forward really lies in recognizing the mutual benefits of cooperation. Southeast Asian nations are well-positioned to benefit significantly by engaging with China's vast consumer market and cutting-edge technologies in such fields as renewable energy and digital innovation.

Rather than falling for divisive rhetoric, China and ASEAN countries should focus more on cooperation, developing high-value industries, strengthening supply chain resilience and creating quality job opportunities to ensure a shared future of stability and prosperity. After all, in an interconnected and interdependent world, economic success comes not from erecting fences, but from building bridges.

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