Q&A: China, U.S. agree to extend tariff pause. What's next?

Top trade officials from China and the U.S. concluded talks on Tuesday in Stockholm, Sweden, their third round of high-level discussions since May.

The two sides had "in-depth, candid and constructive" discussions and agreed to work on extending a pause in tariffs beyond an August 12 deadline for a trade deal, according to China's international trade representative Li Chenggang.

CGTN spoke to Sun Taiyi, associate professor of political science at Christopher Newport University in the United States, and Cui Fan, professor at the University of International Business and Economics, for their insights. The conversations have been lightly edited for clarity and conciseness. 

CGTN: What was the most critical issue in this round? Did any highlights or new proposals come out of the talks?

Sun Taiyi: Ostensibly, the core issues under discussion are trade-related. China and the U.S. have agreed to extend the trade truce – pending U.S. President Donald Trump's approval, according to U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant – for another 90 days, paving the way for a potential leaders' summit this fall. This outcome, anticipated by many, contributes to a further stabilization of Sino-U.S. relations.

Following the tit-for-tat tariff escalations earlier this year, the Trump administration has come to recognize that raising tariffs on Chinese imports carries significant costs – not only in the form of retaliatory tariffs, but also through potential Chinese export controls on rare earth materials vital to several key U.S. industries. With that in mind, while Trump remains inclined to impose tariffs on foreign goods, his administration has grown more cautious in managing its trade conflict with China.

Cui Fan: The two sides engaged in in-depth, candid and constructive exchanges on a wide range of issues of mutual concern during this round of talks. It was based on the consensus reached during the phone conversation between the two heads of state on June 5, and represented another round of communication following the Geneva consensus and the London framework. 

In addition to issues such as tariffs and export controls, the two sides also exchanged views on a wide range of issues, including macroeconomic policies. Both sides at the Stockholm talks fully recognized the importance of maintaining a stable and healthy China-U.S. economic and trade relationship.

CGTN: The two sides have agreed to a 90-day extension of the suspended U.S. reciprocal tariffs and China's countermeasures. What message does this send?

Sun Taiyi: This outcome was largely expected. The relatively straightforward task of cutting approximately 115 percent of tariffs on both sides had already been accomplished during the Geneva talks. The subsequent London talks helped clarify implementation details. These developments, while significant, also suggest that achieving further progress will be considerably more difficult.

Nonetheless, the extension of the trade truce reflects goodwill and patience from both sides, signaling a shared willingness to continue exploring potential avenues for cooperation. This current state of cautious stability is closely tied to the anticipated leaders' summit this fall, as the recent progress may help lay the groundwork for the summit to take place.

Cui Fan: It indicates that neither side is willing to escalate the conflict at present, but there are still a considerable number of unresolved differences. Therefore, efforts will be made to promote a tariff suspension extension to manage the differences and seek consensus through dialogue.

CGTN: Some international media outlets describe the talks as an extension of the U.S.-China trade truce without any major breakthrough. What's your response to that view? How do you assess the outlook for the next round of negotiations?

Sun Taiyi: What's most significant is what didn't happen in the lead-up to and during the trade talks. On the Taiwan front, the Trump administration reportedly intervened to block Lai Ching-te's planned stopover in New York City for a South America trip – just weeks after a scheduled meeting between Wellington Koo and Pentagon officials was canceled. In addition, the White House has delayed approval of the latest U.S. arms package to Taiwan.

On the technology front, before lifting restrictions on AI semiconductors to China, the Trump administration also softened the Commerce Department's language regarding guidance on certain Huawei-made chips – despite objections from several Republican and Democratic lawmakers. These decisions reflect a clear intent by the Trump administration to avoid disruptions to the trade talks. President Trump appears eager to meet with the Chinese president for the first time since his reelection and is willing to push back against pressure from China hawks in Washington. Taken together, these are positive signals that may contribute to further stabilization of bilateral relations in the coming months.

Cui Fan: The latest round of trade talks have touched on some deeply-rooted issues and laid the foundation for further talks. There is still uncertainty about future talks. The Stockholm talks showed that China will safeguard its own interests with upholding the principle of multilateralism, and that China will continue to engage with the U.S. on the basis of mutual respect, equality, mutual benefit and win-win cooperation.

CGTN: From Geneva to London to Stockholm, both sides have sent positive signals. Does this indicate they are moving toward reaching a tariff agreement and intend to avoid a full-scale tariff war?

Sun Taiyi: Both China and the U.S. have come to recognize that a tariff war would harm both economies, and that avoiding one could be mutually beneficial. However, several of the United States' core demands, such as greater market access in China, improved treatment of U.S. companies operating there, and enhanced Chinese cooperation on issues like fentanyl precursor control, remain difficult for China to fully accommodate. As a result, while both sides may desire a trade deal, reaching a comprehensive agreement that lasts continues to pose significant challenges.

Cui Fan: The Geneva talks resulted in the cancellation of tariff escalations, the London talks advanced the agreement framework and the Stockholm talks facilitated broad discussions for the future – all of which were constructive steps. Despite existing differences, there remains room for cooperation between China and the United States. While China does not recognize the legality of the United States' unilateral tariffs, which violate World Trade Organization (WTO) rules, there are still areas where mutual understanding and collaboration can be achieved. At the same time, we must acknowledge that some of these differences may be long-term. China remains patient in addressing these issues and is dedicated to finding solutions that align with shared interests.

CGTN: The U.S. has recently signed trade deals with several other countries, but some of those partners have openly expressed dissatisfaction. What implications do you see these agreements having for the global trade landscape going forward?

Sun Taiyi: Many economies that have reached framework agreements with the U.S. have offered interpretations that differ from those presented by U.S. officials. This suggests that such deals often lack meaningful enforcement mechanisms or that by the time enforcement becomes relevant, the Trump administration may be nearing its end, reducing the credibility of any punitive threat.

As a result, many countries have opted to accept short-term tariff relief from the U.S. without fully meeting its demands upfront. Nevertheless, without active efforts by major economies to reverse the current trajectory, the world is likely to witness a continued retreat from the global trade and economic integration that had advanced steadily for more than half a century following World War II.

Cui Fan: The agreements or frameworks reached between the U.S. and other countries reflect the outcome of their negotiations, which we respect. However, no agreement should come at the expense of third parties' interests, and any deal between WTO members must comply with WTO rules. In the long run, regardless of how the international trade system evolves, the principles of non-discrimination and adherence to agreed tariff commitments must remain intact. Agreements that are not grounded in equality, mutual benefit, and WTO principles are unlikely to be sustainable.