China cuts emissions as U.S. coal revival drives rise

China's carbon dioxide emissions fell 2.7 percent in the first half of 2025 while U.S. emissions rose 4.2 percent, reversing a long-standing pattern in global climate pollution, according to Carbon Monitor, an international scientific project that provides near-real-time, daily CO2 estimates worldwide using multiple activity datasets and models.

Analysts caution the reversal may be temporary, influenced by short-term factors like weather and trade disputes. Yet it reflects diverging trends between the world's top two emitters.

In China, solar installations and EV sales are booming, sparking debate over whether national CO2 output has peaked. In the U.S., surging electricity demand and high natural gas prices have boosted coal use, even as President Donald Trump rolls back climate rules and clean energy subsidies.

China, which consumes over half of the world's coal, cut coal use by 2.6 percent year on year despite a 5 percent rise in electricity demand, International Energy Agency data shows. A drought in two major hydropower provinces could have triggered more coal generation, but hydro and coal output both fell, replaced by renewables.

Solar generation jumped 45 percent from early 2024 levels, after China added 92 GW of capacity in May alone, bringing total solar capacity above 1 TW – compared with about 134 GW in the U.S. at the end of June.

U.S. emissions, long in decline due to coal retirements, are now climbing. Coal generation rose 14 percent in the first six months of 2025, Energy Information Administration data shows.

About 30 GW of coal closures are planned during Trump's second term, down from 48 GW in his first. But with Trump intervening to keep plants open and utilities delaying retirements, the actual reductions may be smaller.

The contrasting shifts in 2025 highlight the complex interplay of policy, markets and climate conditions shaping global emissions trajectories.

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(Cover: The General James M. Gavin Power Plant, a coal-fired power plant, operates in Cheshire, Ohio, the U.S., April 14, 2025. /VCG)