China is poised to play a vital role in shaping a new global order

Editor's note: Zhu Fangfei is deputy director of the Institute for Public Policy of Zhejiang Province and director and researcher at the Research Department of the Institute for Public Policy of Zhejiang University. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN. It has been translated from Chinese and edited for brevity and clarity.

The "reciprocal tariff" policy implemented by the Trump administration in 2025 marked a fundamental shift in the trade strategy of the United States from multilateral coordination to unilateral coercion. By imposing differentiated tariffs on its global trading partners, the US sought to restructure global industrial chains, curb the rise of emerging powers, and preserve its hegemony. This policy bears a striking historical resemblance to the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act adopted in 1930: Both pursued economic nationalism under the guise of "protecting domestic industries" and attempted to unilaterally reshape international trade rules. 

The immediate consequence of the Smoot-Hawley Act was retaliatory measures by 25 countries, as well as disastrous effects on the global economy. World trade volume plummeted 64.7 percent from 68.6 billion US dollars in 1929 to 24.2 billion dollars in 1933. The US itself was not spared, enduring persistent deflation and surging unemployment, which peaked at around 25 percent in 1933. More profoundly, the Act intensified the Great Depression and set off a chain reaction in geopolitics. 

US exports plunged by over 60 percent from 5.4 billion dollars in 1929 to 2.1 billion dollars in 1933. The economic meltdown heightened geopolitical risks worldwide. In Germany, the Nazi Party exploited the economic crisis as a political weapon to boost its support, while Japan, aiming to offset the severe decline in its trade with the US, turned to military expansion. At a moment of turbulent international relations, the US's attempt to secure its own fortunes at the expense of others destroyed the already fragile trust and cooperation mechanisms among nations, setting the stage for the outbreak of World War II. History demonstrates that high-tariff policies often serve as catalysts for the disintegration of international order. Every major tariff war has come with a restructuring of the international order, the escalation of military conflicts, and the decline of dominant states.

The Trump administration has imposed "reciprocal tariffs" unseen in this century, signaling a pivotal turning point in the global trade landscape and warranting vigilance against the recrudescence of trade protectionism. As the world's largest importer, the US's tariff hikes result in a reassessment and restructuring of global supply chains. Transnational corporations are forced to relocate production and supply chains away from traditional low-cost hubs (particularly China) to other low-tariff regions. This policy also disrupts globalization, accelerates the fragmentation of the global economy, and inflicts lasting damage on cross-border investment worldwide. 

At the same time, Trump's tariff policy is not merely a political instrument but also a powerful tool of diplomacy, pressuring other countries to make concessions in trade negotiations and compelling them to reach agreements with the US in areas such as strategic cooperation and military deployment. In this way, the policy influences economic and trade negotiations and ties trade disputes directly to international security and political issues. Over the long run, it will further escalate the risk of geopolitical conflicts and harm the world economy.

Looking to the future, establishing a new global order that is fair and stable is of paramount importance. A new trade system will help restore trust, create trade rules grounded in contractual commitments and free trade, resolve existing trade conflicts, and promote the establishment of an equitable and orderly global economic order. This may well become the cornerstone of future international economic cooperation. As the world's second-largest economy and largest trading nation, China is poised to play a crucial role in mitigating the impact of trade protectionism and fostering a new global order. 

First, multilateral cooperation must be deepened. Solidarity and cooperation are the only viable choices for maintaining a stable international order and addressing global challenges. China is expanding platforms for the collaboration of Global South nations, supporting the enlargement of BRICS and driving the high-quality development of greater BRICS cooperation; making the Shanghai Cooperation Organization the regional organization that covers the largest area and population in the world; and launching an initiative for open and inclusive Global South cooperation, announcing eight key measures. 

Meanwhile, China has striven to promote South-South cooperation, working with Africa to take ten partnership actions for modernization; initiating "five projects" for cooperation with Latin America; joining hands with Arab countries to put in place "five cooperation frameworks"; and building six platforms for cooperation with Pacific Island countries. All these efforts ensure that no country is left behind in the global modernization process. 

Second, free trade must be safeguarded. History and reality both demonstrate that free trade is a powerful impetus for economic globalization and global development. Only by firmly practicing the principles of free trade and resolutely defending the multilateral trading system can we inject certainty and stability into global development. 

Against the backdrop of profound changes in the global economic landscape, China has remained unwavering in its commitment to free trade and open cooperation. It has built a high-standard, global-oriented network for free trade and is advancing the high-quality implementation of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). The China-Singapore Free Trade Agreement Further Upgrade Protocol and the China-Maldives Free Trade Agreement have entered into force successively. Meanwhile, China is also promoting the signature of the Version 3.0 China-ASEAN Free Trade Area upgrade protocol and actively pursuing accession to the Digital Economy Partnership Agreement (DEPA) and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). In the face of worldwide turbulence caused by unilateralism and the shocks to the multilateral trading system, China continues to champion and practice free and open trade, contributing stability and certainty to the global trading system. 

Third, it is essential to actively participate in the global economic governance reform. Guided by the vision of building a human community with a shared future, China has proposed and promoted a wide range of initiatives and practices, including the Belt and Road Initiative, the Global Development Initiative, reform of the World Trade Organization, and the establishment of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), alongside contributions to green and digital governance and the co-development of rules for artificial intelligence. These programs not only respond to developing countries' calls for a fairer order but also seek to align interests with developed economies through an approach of "balancing competition with cooperation".