China's 2025 box office set to surpass 2024 as National Day releases roll out

China's 2025 box office is set to reach a significant milestone during the National Day holiday period, with the year-to-date total expected to exceed 2024's full-year gross of 42.5 billion yuan (about $5.98 billion) as holiday releases flood theaters nationwide.

The market starts the holiday season with a total of roughly 42 billion yuan as of Tuesday, just 500 million yuan short of last year's final figure. With two new releases opening Tuesday—famous director Chen Kaige's war epic "The Volunteers: Peace at Last" and the comedy "Row to Win"—and the official start of the eight-day National Day holiday on October 1, 2025's box office is likely to surpass 2024's total nearly three months before the end of the year.

The biggest single driver of 2025's surge has been "Ne Zha 2," which was released during the Chinese New Year holiday and has earned more than 15.4 billion yuan domestically, accounting for over a third of the year's gross revenue so far.

Other major contributors include "Detective Chinatown 1900" at 3.6 billion yuan, along with summer box office leaders "Dead to Rights" at 3 billion yuan and "Nobody" at 1.6 billion yuan, with the latter becoming the highest-grossing 2D animated film in Chinese history.

September's highlight, "Evil Unbound" – a film depicting the atrocities committed by Japan's notorious Unit 731 during World War II – earned 1.5 billion yuan, ranking as the fifth-highest grossing film of the year.

China's box office has been navigating a challenging recovery since 2019, when annual revenue reached over 64 billion yuan. After bouncing back to 54.9 billion yuan in 2023, total earnings dropped again in 2024 to 42.5 billion yuan. Industry observers remain cautiously optimistic that 2025 could exceed 50 billion yuan, given the current momentum heading into the final quarter.

Holiday lineup dynamics

According to data from ticketing platform Maoyan, new films scheduled for the National Day holiday had generated over 100 million yuan in pre-sales and previews by noon on Tuesday. Early frontrunners include crime thriller "Sound of Silence," "The Volunteers: Peace at Last," the final installment in Chen Kaige's trilogy following two previous films that together grossed more than 2 billion yuan, and "A Writer's Odyssey II," a sequel to the 2021 fantasy-action hit that surpassed 1 billion yuan.

The lineup also features live-action comedy "Row to Win," historical animated film "Three Kingdoms: Starlit Heroes," crime thrillers "The Return of the Lame Hero" and "Sons of the Neon Night," and a re-release of "Avatar: The Way of Water."

Despite a crowded release schedule, the holiday season is "still lacking a true tentpole to really fire up the market," said Lai Li, an analyst at Maoyan. "This year's holiday runs one day longer than usual, which may help word-of-mouth-driven titles gain momentum. Strong reviews could still push the slate toward a significant performance."

IP-driven expansion

Analysts also point out the increasing importance of sequels and franchise development in the Chinese market. "Sequels, franchises and IP-based films are becoming mainstream," said Chen Jin, an analyst at film data platform Beacon. "'The Volunteers' concludes a trilogy that has already drawn nearly 50 million admissions. 'A Writer's Odyssey II' extends a successful commercial property, and 'Three Kingdoms: Starlit Heroes' is clearly designed to launch a new franchise."

Chen said this trend shows a move toward more industrialization and maturity in the Chinese film industry, mirroring Hollywood's longstanding dependence on IP to boost repeat viewership.

Despite inconsistent performances in earlier release periods this year – a record Lunar New Year followed by a weak May Day and a stable summer – the National Day window could prove crucial in confirming the strength of the 2025 recovery.

With the annual total expected to exceed last year's figure within days, all eyes are now on whether China can cross the symbolic 50-billion-yuan mark, further solidifying its position as one of the world's most dynamic box offices.