Will China's 15th Five-Year Plan inspire a new global growth model?

Editor's note: Andy Mok, a special commentator for CGTN, is a professor at Beijing Foreign Studies University and a Senior Research Fellow at the Center for China and Globalization. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

China's five-year plans once resembled Soviet-style production blueprints. Today, they function more like an operating system: ideology at the top, implementation logic in the middle and feedback loops below. Since 2012, that operating system has been restructured to reflect a new organizing principle: "The Party exercises overall leadership in all areas of endeavor across the country." That leadership is now expressed not just through goals, but through a political calendar aimed at nothing less than national rejuvenation and the restoration of China's historical voice in shaping the future of humanity.

The clock has two anchor points: 2035, when China aims to "basically realize socialist modernization" with per capita gains and institutional maturity; and 2049, the centenary of the People's Republic of China and the deadline to build a "great modern socialist country." In this two-stage trajectory, the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030) emerges as the inflection point.

Four things must now be proved. The first step to consider is to establish a fair mechanism to distribute the gains of modernization. The core challenge, as defined at the 19th National Congress, is the "contradiction between unbalanced and inadequate development and the people's ever-growing desire for a better life." Delivering on the people-centered development philosophy now means creating institutional mechanisms that enable households to consistently share in the dividends of growth.

That includes portable social insurance across provinces, greater public-service funding from state-owned enterprise (SOE) dividends and wage-productivity compacts that ensure workers benefit from enterprise upgrades. As leading analysts have observed, this marks a shift from growth as quantity to modernization as legitimacy – where visible, shared outcomes define political credibility.

The second step is to promote high-quality, innovation-led growth – without the old levers. The Party has made it clear that "innovation is the primary driving force for development." But growth in this new phase must come without the real estate leverage and debt-fueled infrastructure cycles of the past.

The challenge for the 15th Five-Year Plan is to reallocate capital into frontier technologies, green infrastructure and platform industries built atop rule-based markets, especially for power and carbon. In the Party's theoretical framing, this is a test of whether the superstructure – the leadership and governance architecture – can steer investment away from short-term momentum and toward long-term productive capacity.

Furthermore, the government and businesses should find a new model of opening up that draws trust, not just capital. China's stated aim is "high-standard opening up." But in today's climate, this will be judged more by regulatory predictability – negative lists that are stable, cross-border data regimes that are navigable and legal mechanisms that reduce investor friction.

This is where China's governance ambition and its global credibility intersect. The question is no longer whether capital will come, but whether it will stay – anchored by the clarity and consistency of institutional rule-sets.

Last but not least, a governance model that inspires – not commands – emulation. China has emphasized that it does not export its system. Xi has said plainly, "We will not import foreign models, nor export the Chinese model." Instead, Beijing seeks to offer a "new form of human advancement" that other countries can interpret and adapt as they see fit.

This only resonates globally if the system works domestically. Can the Party-led architecture integrate rule of law and rule of virtue, as Xi has called for, to deliver efficient, flexible and disciplined administration at scale?

Skeptics point to structural debt, slowing growth and demographic drag. But precisely because the next five years will unfold under greater pressure, the test becomes more meaningful. If equitable outcomes, productive growth, credible openness and institutional clarity can still be generated, the Chinese modernization earns its next chapter – not just domestically, but internationally.

There is no ideological sales pitch. Xi has reiterated that "each country must follow its own path." But if the 15th Five-Year Plan delivers, others may choose to follow parts of China's path – not out of deference, but because it works.

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