U.S. 20-point Gaza plan: Path to peace or a compromise without end?

Hamas still has time to deliberate on the 20-point proposal unveiled by U.S. President Donald Trump at the end of September. The plan, however, has drawn widespread criticism as vague and lacking detail, with many seeing it less as a genuine peace initiative and more as a political bargaining chip – a high-stakes deal that risks producing a compromised peace with no clear resolution in sight.

Media reports have noted key omissions, including the absence of binding commitments or a clear timetable for Israel's full withdrawal – a central demand of Hamas. Critics also highlight the lack of clarity over which countries would contribute to the proposed "International Stabilization Force," as well as the omission of any explicit reference to the widely recognized "two-state solution." Adding to the doubts, Hamas was excluded from the latest round of negotiations and has already rejected core elements of the plan.

U.S.' intentions: Rebuilding image, pressuring Hamas

Unlike earlier U.S.-backed ceasefire proposals, which focused on phased, temporary pauses in exchange for the release of detainees, the 20-point proposal envisions an immediate ceasefire in Gaza and the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces, according to Li Shaoxian, director of the China-Arab States Research Institute at Ningxia University.

Li said that the proposal sets out postwar arrangements, including a temporary Palestinian technocratic committee overseen by an international "Board of Peace" chaired by Trump.

He noted that the nearly two-year-long Israel-Hamas conflict has seriously damaged U.S. interests. "Whether in terms of America's international image, its ties with European allies, or its relations with partners in the Arab world – all have been damaged," he said, pointing to recent Israeli strikes on Qatar and several European countries' recognition of Palestine at the UN General Assembly.

Li added Trump may also be motivated by personal ambition, securing a ceasefire in Gaza by October could strengthen his bid for this year's Nobel Peace Prize.

Niu Xinchun, a professor from the China-Arab States Research Institute at Ningxia University, agreed that Trump is eager to portray himself as a peacemaker, but said the plan also aims to shift blame for the conflict onto Hamas. 

The proposal demands Hamas's full surrender, Niu said, and if it refuses, Arab and European countries backing the plan will hold Hamas primarily responsible.

He further warned the proposal could serve as a pretext for escalating the conflict into a wider war.

Netanyahu's calculation

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu endorsed the plan on Monday, saying it met Israel's objectives. But analysts questioned Israel's commitment to a lasting ceasefire and its willingness to fully implement the agreement.

According to Israeli newspaper Haaretz, Netanyahu must present the plan to his far-right coalition partners, many of whom reject any deal with Hamas and have threatened to withdraw from the government. At the same time, he faces mounting pressure from the White House, which has staked its credibility on the plan's success.

Haaretz also noted that Netanyahu has publicly opposed some key elements of the plan, particularly any future role for the Palestinian Authority in Gaza. This ambiguity, analysts say, gives him political cover to endorse the plan in principle without being held accountable for its implementation.

Haaretz further suggested that Netanyahu may be counting on Hamas to reject the plan, enabling Israel to prolong the conflict without taking direct blame.

Wang Jin, assistant director of the Institute of Middle East Studies at Northwest University of China, also pointed to Israel's reluctance to meet the plan's conditions, which includes full withdrawal, increased humanitarian aid, and possibly reopening border crossings – steps the current far-right government would find unacceptable.

Still, Wang said Netanyahu might try to maneuver politically, persuading centrist and left-leaning parties supportive of a ceasefire to join a new coalition, thereby keeping his government intact.

Hamas' dilemma

Time is running out for Hamas to decide on the U.S. ceasefire proposal, and experts agree that the group's stance will be crucial to whether the plan succeeds.

The proposal sets contradictory demands: it requires Hamas to release hostages, disarm, and relinquish any role in postwar Gaza's governance, while also relying on the group's voluntary cooperation to fulfill these conditions. For Hamas, this amounts to both political and military suicide, Wang said.

Meanwhile, Israel has intensified its operations in Gaza City, placing Hamas's remaining strongholds under greater pressure. Ding Long, a professor at the Middle East Studies Institute of Shanghai International Studies University, believes that Hamas may compromise in order to preserve its remaining strength.

Still, Wang cautioned that even if Hamas's leadership accepted the plan, resistance within its ranks would remain strong. Hamas might seek a role in postwar governance, while mid- and lower-level members could obstruct its implementation, he added.

However, the U.S. is likely to continue exerting political pressure through third parties, including Qatar, to force Hamas into making certain concessions, Wang said, adding that as things stand, it remains highly uncertain whether the 20-point plan can be effectively implemented in the short term.

Read more: Trump's 20-point Gaza plan draws skepticism for sidelining two-state solution