Will Takaichi's rise to power mark a new era of tension for Japan, China, and all of Asia?

Editor's note: Rabi Sankar Bosu, a special commentator on current affairs for CGTN, writes about Chinese politics, social and cultural issues, and China-India relations with a special interest in the Belt and Road Initiative. The article reflects the author's views, and not necessarily those of CGTN.

Sanae Takaichi's historic election, as the leader of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) on October 4, 2025, has garnered significant global attention. The 64-year-old conservative nationalist, who defeated four other candidates, is posed to become Japan's first female prime minister on October 15 when the Diet, Japan's national legislature, convenes, succeeding Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. With the LDP's majority in the Diet, Takaichi's victory is set to mark a new era in Japanese politics.

Takaichi, Japan's former economic security and internal affairs minister, is, in all likelihood, going to take the reins as Japan's fifth prime minister in five years at a critical juncture. Her LDP party, which has ruled almost continuously since its foundation in 1955, is grappling with internal strife, while Japan, one of the world's largest economies faces pressing challenges, including a sluggish economy, inflation, a rapidly aging population, and growing concerns about immigration.

Furthermore, Japan is navigating tensions with the United States over trade tariffs, adding to the complexity of the situation. With the weight of these issues on her shoulders, Takaichi's ability to resolve the party's internal conflicts, revitalize the economy, and curb inflation will be put to the test. Only time will tell if she can rise to the challenge.

Takaichi's ascension to the leadership of Japan's ruling party is widely viewed as a significant milestone for women in politics, but her stance on women's rights, particularly surname rights for married couples, has sparked controversy. On the positive side, while she has promised to form a cabinet that includes women, many are looking to see if she will champion women's empowerment, which could help break the male-dominated structure of Japan's politics.

On the domestic front, Takaichi, an admirer of former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, is a key figure in the LDP's hard-line wing. With younger generations increasingly drawn to smaller opposition parties, the LDP is banking on Takaichi appealing to traditional right-wing voters and shoring up support.

Takaichi's historic victory may resonate with some, but her hardline stance on defense and foreign policy raises concerns about potential tensions with neighboring countries, including China and South Korea.

She has long been a vocal critic of China. As a strong supporter of Japan's military buildup, she is aligning herself with the U.S., likely antagonizing China further. In her first press conference on October 4, she reiterated her commitment to the Japan-U.S. alliance and the Abe administration's "Free and Open Indo-Pacific" (FOIP) policy — a move seen as countering China's influence. Furthermore, Takaichi's "Japan First" policy echoes Trump's "America First" agenda, underscoring her nationalist stance.

Her past record suggests increased tensions with China are likely, potentially destabilizing the region. As she navigates international diplomacy, she will need to balance her rhetoric with diplomatic finesse, particularly in dealing with China, Japan's largest trading partner and one of the largest investment destinations for Japanese companies. Given the significance of their bilateral trade in vehicles, machinery, and electronics, Takaichi's approach towards China will be put to the test.

On the other hand, Takaichi's past actions on sensitive issues, including her regular visits to the notorious Yasukuni Shrine, which enshrines Japan's war dead, including convicted Class A war criminals from World War II (WWII), are likely to strain China-Japan ties. The shrine's symbolism is a sore point long shadowing Japan's relations with China, particularly given the Nanjing Massacre and other atrocities committed by Japanese troops during the Chinese People's War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression (1931-1945), which resulted in more than 35 million military and civilian casualties.

Her assertion that the shrine should not be a "diplomatic issue" is at odds with the need for Japan to face and reflect upon its wartime past. To build trust with China and other Asian nations, Japan must acknowledge and make amends for its historical wrongdoings, rather than denying or whitewashing them. A sincere apology for the Nanjing Massacre, the forced recruitment of "comfort women," and other atrocities would be a step towards healing old wounds and improving relations.

Takaichi's actions on the Taiwan question are also a stark reminder of her willingness to stir up tensions with Beijing. As a seasoned politician, she is well-versed in the one-China principle, yet she chose to meet Lin Chia-lung, a "foreign affairs" official of China's Taiwan region, in Tokyo this July, flagrantly disregarding diplomatic protocol. Earlier, her meeting with Lai Ching-te, leader of China's Taiwan region, in Taipei, where she touted cooperation on artificial intelligence and defense, was a brazen attempt to bolster her credentials. By playing the "Taiwan card," she is prioritizing her own political legacy over regional stability, recklessly dragging China-Japan relations down further.

The Chinese government has underscored the importance of its relations with Japan under Takaichi's leadership. In response to her recent actions, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman urged Japan to pursue a "positive and rational policy toward China" and fully implement its commitment to a strategic, mutually beneficial relationship.

As international diplomacy is inherently a two-way street, Japan should prioritize win-win cooperation over zero-sum thinking in its relations with China. By working together, the two nations can forge a new path of partnership that advances regional stability and contributes to global peace and prosperity.

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